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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6 | DAL @ PHI | 17–26 | -6.2 | -6.5 | -9.0 | 2.8 |
| 2022 | 6 | DEN @ LAC | 16–19 | -3.6 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 0.6 |
| 2022 | 6 | JAX @ IND | 27–34 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -7.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | MIN @ MIA | 24–16 | +0.1 | +3.0 | +8.0 | 7.9 |
| 2022 | 6 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| 38–15 |
| -1.2 |
| -2.5 |
| +23.0 |
| 24.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | NYJ @ GB | 27–10 | -8.0 | -7.5 | +17.0 | 25.0 |
| 2022 | 6 | SF @ ATL | 14–28 | +6.2 | +3.5 | -14.0 | 20.2 |
| 2022 | 6 | TB @ PIT | 18–20 | +8.1 | +10.0 | -2.0 | 10.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 6 | WAS @ CHI | 12–7 | -0.4 | +1.0 | +5.0 | 5.4 |
| 2022 | 5 | ATL @ TB | 15–21 | -10.4 | -10.5 | -6.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | CHI @ MIN | 22–29 | -8.2 | -10.0 | -7.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | CIN @ BAL | 17–19 | -2.4 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | DAL @ LA | 22–10 | -3.3 | -5.5 | +12.0 | 15.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | DET @ NE | 0–29 | -3.5 | -3.0 | -29.0 | 25.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | HOU @ JAX | 13–6 | -8.0 | -7.0 | +7.0 | 15.0 |
| 2022 | 5 | IND @ DEN | 12–9 | -3.8 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 6.8 |
| 2022 | 5 | LAC @ CLE | 30–28 | +1.1 | +1.0 | +2.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | LV @ KC | 29–30 | -8.3 | -7.5 | -1.0 | 7.3 |
| 2022 | 5 | MIA @ NYJ | 17–40 | +4.4 | +3.0 | -23.0 | 27.4 |
| 2022 | 5 | NYG vs GB | 27–22 | -7.5 | -8.5 | +5.0 | 12.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | PHI @ ARI | 20–17 | +6.4 | +5.5 | +3.0 | 3.4 |
| 2022 | 5 | PIT @ BUF | 3–38 | -14.0 | -14.0 | -35.0 | 21.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | SEA @ NO | 32–39 | -4.8 | -5.5 | -7.0 | 2.2 |
| 2022 | 5 | SF @ CAR | 37–15 | +6.6 | +6.0 | +22.0 | 15.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 5 | TEN @ WAS | 21–17 | +1.9 | +1.0 | +4.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | ARI @ CAR | 26–16 | -2.1 | -1.0 | +10.0 | 12.1 |
| 2022 | 4 | BUF @ BAL | 23–20 | +3.8 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 0.8 |
| 2022 | 4 | CHI @ NYG | 12–20 | -2.5 | -3.0 | -8.0 | 5.5 |
| 2022 | 4 | CLE @ ATL | 20–23 | +1.7 | +1.0 | -3.0 | 4.7 |
| 2022 | 4 | DEN @ LV | 23–32 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -9.0 | 7.5 |
| 2022 | 4 | JAX @ PHI | 21–29 | -7.3 | -6.5 | -8.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | KC @ TB | 41–31 | -1.6 | -1.0 | +10.0 | 11.6 |
| 2022 | 4 | LA @ SF | 9–24 | -2.1 | -1.0 | -15.0 | 12.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | LAC @ HOU | 34–24 | +4.6 | +5.5 | +10.0 | 5.4 |
| 2022 | 4 | MIA @ CIN | 15–27 | -2.9 | -4.0 | -12.0 | 9.1 |
| 2022 | 4 | MIN vs NO | 28–25 | +2.9 | +4.0 | +3.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | NE @ GB | 24–27 | -8.8 | -10.0 | -3.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | NYJ @ PIT | 24–20 | -4.5 | -3.0 | +4.0 | 8.5 |
| 2022 | 4 | SEA @ DET | 48–45 | -3.4 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 6.4 |
| 2022 | 4 | TEN @ IND | 24–17 | -3.0 | -4.5 | +7.0 | 10.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | WAS @ DAL | 10–25 | -5.7 | -3.0 | -15.0 | 9.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | ATL @ SEA | 27–23 | -2.7 | -1.0 | +4.0 | 6.7 |
| 2022 | 3 | BAL @ NE | 37–26 | +1.7 | +2.5 | +11.0 | 9.3 |
| 2022 | 3 | BUF @ MIA | 19–21 | +4.4 | +4.0 | -2.0 | 6.4 |
| 2022 | 3 | CIN @ NYJ | 27–12 | +5.3 | +6.5 | +15.0 | 9.7 |
| 2022 | 3 | DAL @ NYG | 23–16 | +0.5 | -1.0 | +7.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | DET @ MIN | 24–28 | -6.5 | -6.5 | -4.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | GB @ TB | 14–12 | -3.5 | -1.0 | +2.0 | 5.5 |
| 2022 | 3 | HOU @ CHI | 20–23 | -3.2 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 | 3 | JAX @ LAC | 38–10 | -6.2 | -6.5 | +28.0 | 34.2 (model closer than the closing line) |