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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3 | KC @ IND | 17–20 | +4.5 | +4.5 | -3.0 | 7.5 |
| 2022 | 3 | LA @ ARI | 20–12 | +2.9 | +3.5 | +8.0 | 5.1 |
| 2022 | 3 | LV @ TEN | 22–24 | -0.1 | +1.5 | -2.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | NO @ CAR | 14–22 | +1.1 | +2.0 | -8.0 | 9.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| PHI @ WAS |
| 24–8 |
| +5.9 |
| +6.0 |
| +16.0 |
| 10.1 |
| 2022 | 3 | PIT @ CLE | 17–29 | -4.0 | -4.5 | -12.0 | 8.0 |
| 2022 | 3 | SF @ DEN | 10–11 | +0.1 | +1.0 | -1.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | ARI @ LV | 29–23 | -4.8 | -5.5 | +6.0 | 10.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | ATL @ LA | 27–31 | -9.2 | -10.5 | -4.0 | 5.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | CAR @ NYG | 16–19 | -0.6 | +1.0 | -3.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | CHI @ GB | 10–27 | -8.4 | -10.5 | -17.0 | 8.6 |
| 2022 | 2 | CIN @ DAL | 17–20 | +3.3 | +7.5 | -3.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | HOU @ DEN | 9–16 | -9.6 | -10.5 | -7.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | IND @ JAX | 0–24 | +3.2 | +3.0 | -24.0 | 27.2 |
| 2022 | 2 | LAC @ KC | 24–27 | -4.9 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 1.9 |
| 2022 | 2 | MIA @ BAL | 42–38 | -2.7 | -3.0 | +4.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | MIN @ PHI | 7–24 | -1.8 | -2.5 | -17.0 | 15.2 |
| 2022 | 2 | NE @ PIT | 17–14 | +0.3 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 2.7 |
| 2022 | 2 | NYJ @ CLE | 31–30 | -7.1 | -6.5 | +1.0 | 8.1 |
| 2022 | 2 | SEA @ SF | 7–27 | -7.5 | -8.5 | -20.0 | 12.5 |
| 2022 | 2 | TB @ NO | 20–10 | +3.3 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | TEN @ BUF | 7–41 | -9.9 | -10.0 | -34.0 | 24.1 |
| 2022 | 2 | WAS @ DET | 27–36 | +0.7 | +1.0 | -9.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 1 | BAL @ NYJ | 24–9 | +4.6 | +6.5 | +15.0 | 10.4 |
| 2022 | 1 | BUF @ LA | 31–10 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +21.0 | 20.4 |
| 2022 | 1 | CLE @ CAR | 26–24 | -0.9 | -2.5 | +2.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 1 | DEN @ SEA | 16–17 | +3.3 | +6.0 | -1.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 1 | GB @ MIN | 7–23 | -1.2 | -2.5 | -16.0 | 14.8 |
| 2022 | 1 | IND @ HOU | 20–20 | +5.9 | +7.0 | 0.0 | 5.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 1 | JAX @ WAS | 22–28 | -3.4 | -3.0 | -6.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 1 | KC @ ARI | 44–21 | +3.8 | +6.0 | +23.0 | 19.2 |
| 2022 | 1 | LV @ LAC | 19–24 | -4.3 | -3.5 | -5.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 1 | NE @ MIA | 7–20 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -13.0 | 10.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 1 | NO @ ATL | 27–26 | +5.1 | +6.0 | +1.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 1 | NYG @ TEN | 21–20 | -6.5 | -5.5 | +1.0 | 7.5 |
| 2022 | 1 | PHI @ DET | 38–35 | +4.2 | +6.0 | +3.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 1 | PIT @ CIN | 23–20 | -7.2 | -7.5 | +3.0 | 10.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 1 | SF @ CHI | 10–19 | +5.6 | +6.5 | -9.0 | 14.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 1 | TB @ DAL | 19–3 | +0.5 | +2.5 | +16.0 | 15.5 |
| 2021 | 22 | LA vs CIN | 23–20 | +4.4 | +4.5 | +3.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 21 | CIN @ KC | 27–24 | -8.2 | -7.0 | +3.0 | 11.2 |
| 2021 | 21 | SF @ LA | 17–20 | -2.8 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 20 | BUF @ KC | 36–42 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -6.0 | 4.5 |
| 2021 | 20 | CIN @ TEN | 19–16 | -4.2 | -4.0 | +3.0 | 7.2 |
| 2021 | 20 | LA @ TB | 30–27 | -3.8 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 6.8 |
| 2021 | 20 | SF @ GB | 13–10 | -4.1 | -5.5 | +3.0 | 7.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 19 | ARI @ LA | 11–34 | -4.3 | -4.0 | -23.0 | 18.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 19 | LV @ CIN | 19–26 | -4.3 | -6.0 | -7.0 | 2.7 |
| 2021 | 19 | NE @ BUF | 17–47 | -4.6 | -4.5 | -30.0 | 25.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 19 | PHI @ TB | 15–31 | -8.9 | -7.5 | -16.0 | 7.1 (model closer than the closing line) |