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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 15 | ARI @ DET | 12–30 | +11.8 | +13.0 | -18.0 | 29.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 15 | ATL @ SF | 13–31 | -8.3 | -9.5 | -18.0 | 9.7 |
| 2021 | 15 | CAR @ BUF | 14–31 | -10.8 | -14.0 | -17.0 | 6.2 |
| 2021 | 15 | CIN @ DEN | 15–10 | -2.9 | -3.0 | +5.0 | 7.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 15 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| DAL @ NYG |
| 21–6 |
| +9.8 |
| +11.5 |
| +15.0 |
| 5.2 |
| 2021 | 15 | GB @ BAL | 31–30 | +6.6 | +9.5 | +1.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 15 | HOU @ JAX | 30–16 | -3.7 | -6.0 | +14.0 | 17.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 15 | KC @ LAC | 34–28 | +3.3 | +3.0 | +6.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 15 | LV @ CLE | 16–14 | -2.3 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 4.3 |
| 2021 | 15 | MIN @ CHI | 17–9 | +6.6 | +7.0 | +8.0 | 1.4 |
| 2021 | 15 | NE @ IND | 17–27 | -0.2 | +1.0 | -10.0 | 9.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 15 | NO @ TB | 9–0 | -9.9 | -11.5 | +9.0 | 18.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 15 | NYJ @ MIA | 24–31 | -10.3 | -10.5 | -7.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 15 | SEA @ LA | 10–20 | -5.4 | -7.5 | -10.0 | 4.6 |
| 2021 | 15 | TEN @ PIT | 13–19 | +3.4 | -1.0 | -6.0 | 9.4 |
| 2021 | 15 | WAS @ PHI | 17–27 | -5.9 | -10.0 | -10.0 | 4.1 |
| 2021 | 14 | ATL @ CAR | 29–21 | -2.9 | -2.5 | +8.0 | 10.9 |
| 2021 | 14 | BAL @ CLE | 22–24 | -1.6 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 14 | BUF @ TB | 27–33 | -2.9 | -3.5 | -6.0 | 3.1 |
| 2021 | 14 | CHI @ GB | 30–45 | -11.6 | -11.5 | -15.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 14 | DAL @ WAS | 27–20 | +4.7 | +6.5 | +7.0 | 2.3 |
| 2021 | 14 | DET @ DEN | 10–38 | -10.6 | -13.0 | -28.0 | 17.4 |
| 2021 | 14 | JAX @ TEN | 0–20 | -10.1 | -8.5 | -20.0 | 9.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 14 | LA @ ARI | 30–23 | -2.1 | -3.0 | +7.0 | 9.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 14 | LV @ KC | 9–48 | -8.5 | -10.0 | -39.0 | 30.5 |
| 2021 | 14 | NO @ NYJ | 30–9 | +5.7 | +4.5 | +21.0 | 15.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 14 | NYG @ LAC | 21–37 | -8.0 | -9.5 | -16.0 | 8.0 |
| 2021 | 14 | PIT @ MIN | 28–36 | -4.1 | -3.5 | -8.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 14 | SEA @ HOU | 33–13 | +9.1 | +10.0 | +20.0 | 10.9 |
| 2021 | 14 | SF @ CIN | 26–23 | +3.6 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 0.6 |
| 2021 | 13 | ARI @ CHI | 33–22 | +5.1 | +7.5 | +11.0 | 5.9 |
| 2021 | 13 | BAL @ PIT | 19–20 | +5.1 | +4.0 | -1.0 | 6.1 |
| 2021 | 13 | DAL @ NO | 27–17 | +3.9 | +6.0 | +10.0 | 6.1 |
| 2021 | 13 | DEN @ KC | 9–22 | -6.4 | -8.5 | -13.0 | 6.6 |
| 2021 | 13 | IND @ HOU | 31–0 | +10.0 | +10.0 | +31.0 | 21.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 13 | JAX @ LA | 7–37 | -12.5 | -14.0 | -30.0 | 17.5 |
| 2021 | 13 | LAC @ CIN | 41–22 | -1.5 | -2.5 | +19.0 | 20.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 13 | MIN @ DET | 27–29 | +7.3 | +7.0 | -2.0 | 9.3 |
| 2021 | 13 | NE @ BUF | 14–10 | -3.1 | -3.0 | +4.0 | 7.1 |
| 2021 | 13 | NYG @ MIA | 9–20 | -6.0 | -6.5 | -11.0 | 5.0 |
| 2021 | 13 | PHI @ NYJ | 33–18 | +5.3 | +5.0 | +15.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 13 | SF @ SEA | 23–30 | +3.2 | +3.0 | -7.0 | 10.2 |
| 2021 | 13 | TB @ ATL | 30–17 | +10.3 | +11.0 | +13.0 | 2.7 |
| 2021 | 13 | WAS @ LV | 17–15 | -0.4 | -1.0 | +2.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 12 | ATL @ JAX | 21–14 | +2.4 | +1.5 | +7.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 12 | BUF @ NO | 31–6 | +5.4 | +7.0 | +25.0 | 19.6 |
| 2021 | 12 | CAR @ MIA | 10–33 | +0.8 | +1.0 | -23.0 | 23.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 12 | CHI @ DET | 16–14 | +4.5 | +2.0 | +2.0 | 2.5 |
| 2021 | 12 | CLE @ BAL | 10–16 | -1.5 | -3.0 | -6.0 | 4.5 |
| 2021 | 12 | LA @ GB | 28–36 | -0.7 | +2.0 | -8.0 | 7.3 (model closer than the closing line) |