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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 9 | NYJ @ IND | 30–45 | -10.2 | -10.5 | -15.0 | 4.8 |
| 2021 | 9 | TEN @ LA | 28–16 | -4.6 | -7.0 | +12.0 | 16.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 8 | CAR @ ATL | 19–13 | -1.6 | -2.5 | +6.0 | 7.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 8 | CIN @ NYJ | 31–34 | +8.9 | +11.5 | -3.0 | 11.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| 8 |
| DAL @ MIN |
| 20–16 |
| -1.6 |
| -4.5 |
| +4.0 |
| 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 8 | GB @ ARI | 24–21 | -4.0 | -6.5 | +3.0 | 7.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 8 | JAX @ SEA | 7–31 | -6.2 | -4.0 | -24.0 | 17.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 8 | LA @ HOU | 38–22 | +14.1 | +17.0 | +16.0 | 1.9 |
| 2021 | 8 | MIA @ BUF | 11–26 | -12.7 | -15.0 | -15.0 | 2.3 |
| 2021 | 8 | NE @ LAC | 27–24 | -2.6 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 8 | NYG @ KC | 17–20 | -8.5 | -10.5 | -3.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 8 | PHI @ DET | 44–6 | +2.9 | +3.0 | +38.0 | 35.1 |
| 2021 | 8 | PIT @ CLE | 15–10 | -4.9 | -5.5 | +5.0 | 9.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 8 | SF @ CHI | 33–22 | +4.2 | +4.5 | +11.0 | 6.8 |
| 2021 | 8 | TB @ NO | 27–36 | +4.0 | +4.0 | -9.0 | 13.0 |
| 2021 | 8 | TEN @ IND | 34–31 | -1.0 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 8 | WAS @ DEN | 10–17 | -3.4 | -4.0 | -7.0 | 3.6 |
| 2021 | 7 | ATL @ MIA | 30–28 | +0.8 | +1.5 | +2.0 | 1.2 |
| 2021 | 7 | CAR @ NYG | 3–25 | +3.8 | +3.0 | -22.0 | 25.8 |
| 2021 | 7 | CHI @ TB | 3–38 | -10.6 | -12.5 | -35.0 | 24.4 |
| 2021 | 7 | CIN @ BAL | 41–17 | -6.0 | -6.5 | +24.0 | 30.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 7 | DEN @ CLE | 14–17 | -2.1 | -2.0 | -3.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 7 | DET @ LA | 19–28 | -16.6 | -17.0 | -9.0 | 7.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 7 | HOU @ ARI | 5–31 | -16.5 | -20.5 | -26.0 | 9.5 |
| 2021 | 7 | IND @ SF | 30–18 | -1.7 | -3.5 | +12.0 | 13.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 7 | KC @ TEN | 3–27 | +3.0 | +4.0 | -24.0 | 27.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 7 | NO @ SEA | 13–10 | +4.3 | +6.0 | +3.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 7 | NYJ @ NE | 13–54 | -6.1 | -7.0 | -41.0 | 34.9 |
| 2021 | 7 | PHI @ LV | 22–33 | -2.7 | -1.0 | -11.0 | 8.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 7 | WAS @ GB | 10–24 | -8.0 | -8.5 | -14.0 | 6.0 |
| 2021 | 6 | ARI @ CLE | 37–14 | -1.6 | -3.0 | +23.0 | 24.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 6 | BUF @ TEN | 31–34 | +6.4 | +6.0 | -3.0 | 9.4 |
| 2021 | 6 | CIN @ DET | 34–11 | +4.7 | +3.5 | +23.0 | 18.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 6 | DAL @ NE | 35–29 | +4.1 | +3.5 | +6.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 6 | GB @ CHI | 24–14 | +4.9 | +5.5 | +10.0 | 5.1 |
| 2021 | 6 | HOU @ IND | 3–31 | -9.2 | -10.5 | -28.0 | 18.8 |
| 2021 | 6 | KC @ WAS | 31–13 | +5.3 | +6.0 | +18.0 | 12.7 |
| 2021 | 6 | LA @ NYG | 38–11 | +7.3 | +7.5 | +27.0 | 19.7 |
| 2021 | 6 | LAC @ BAL | 6–34 | -1.9 | -3.0 | -28.0 | 26.1 |
| 2021 | 6 | LV @ DEN | 34–24 | -4.2 | -5.0 | +10.0 | 14.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 6 | MIA vs JAX | 20–23 | +3.5 | +2.5 | -3.0 | 6.5 |
| 2021 | 6 | MIN @ CAR | 34–28 | +0.9 | +2.5 | +6.0 | 5.1 |
| 2021 | 6 | SEA @ PIT | 20–23 | -2.3 | -5.5 | -3.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 6 | TB @ PHI | 28–22 | +8.2 | +7.0 | +6.0 | 2.2 |
| 2021 | 5 | BUF @ KC | 38–20 | -1.1 | -2.5 | +18.0 | 19.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 5 | CHI @ LV | 20–9 | -3.6 | -5.5 | +11.0 | 14.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 5 | CLE @ LAC | 42–47 | -1.2 | -2.5 | -5.0 | 3.8 |
| 2021 | 5 | DEN @ PIT | 19–27 | +3.2 | +2.0 | -8.0 | 11.2 |
| 2021 | 5 | DET @ MIN | 17–19 | -10.5 | -10.0 | -2.0 | 8.5 |
| 2021 | 5 | GB @ CIN | 25–22 | +3.5 | +2.0 | +3.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |