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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 5 | IND @ BAL | 25–31 | -5.7 | -7.5 | -6.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 5 | LA @ SEA | 26–17 | +1.6 | +2.5 | +9.0 | 7.4 |
| 2021 | 5 | MIA @ TB | 17–45 | -9.6 | -11.0 | -28.0 | 18.4 |
| 2021 | 5 | NE @ HOU | 25–22 | +6.2 | +8.0 | +3.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 5 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| NO @ WAS |
| 33–22 |
| +3.2 |
| +2.5 |
| +11.0 |
| 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 5 | NYG @ DAL | 20–44 | -7.4 | -7.5 | -24.0 | 16.6 |
| 2021 | 5 | NYJ vs ATL | 20–27 | -2.8 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 4.2 |
| 2021 | 5 | PHI @ CAR | 21–18 | -4.3 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 7.3 |
| 2021 | 5 | SF @ ARI | 10–17 | -5.1 | -6.0 | -7.0 | 1.9 |
| 2021 | 5 | TEN @ JAX | 37–19 | +4.6 | +4.0 | +18.0 | 13.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | ARI @ LA | 37–20 | -3.4 | -3.5 | +17.0 | 20.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | BAL @ DEN | 23–7 | -1.1 | -1.0 | +16.0 | 17.1 |
| 2021 | 4 | CAR @ DAL | 28–36 | -2.6 | -4.5 | -8.0 | 5.4 |
| 2021 | 4 | CLE @ MIN | 14–7 | +1.1 | +1.0 | +7.0 | 5.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | DET @ CHI | 14–24 | -4.0 | -3.0 | -10.0 | 6.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | HOU @ BUF | 0–40 | -15.9 | -19.0 | -40.0 | 24.1 |
| 2021 | 4 | IND @ MIA | 27–17 | -1.7 | -2.5 | +10.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | JAX @ CIN | 21–24 | -6.5 | -7.5 | -3.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | KC @ PHI | 42–30 | +7.0 | +7.5 | +12.0 | 5.0 |
| 2021 | 4 | LV @ LAC | 14–28 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 10.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | NYG @ NO | 27–21 | -8.8 | -7.5 | +6.0 | 14.8 |
| 2021 | 4 | PIT @ GB | 17–27 | -6.3 | -6.5 | -10.0 | 3.7 |
| 2021 | 4 | SEA @ SF | 28–21 | -2.7 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 9.7 |
| 2021 | 4 | TB @ NE | 19–17 | +5.5 | +6.0 | +2.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | TEN @ NYJ | 24–27 | +5.2 | +5.5 | -3.0 | 8.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | WAS @ ATL | 34–30 | +0.7 | +1.0 | +4.0 | 3.3 |
| 2021 | 3 | ARI @ JAX | 31–19 | +7.8 | +8.0 | +12.0 | 4.2 |
| 2021 | 3 | ATL @ NYG | 17–14 | -1.4 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | BAL @ DET | 19–17 | +9.4 | +7.5 | +2.0 | 7.4 |
| 2021 | 3 | CAR @ HOU | 24–9 | +6.1 | +8.0 | +15.0 | 8.9 |
| 2021 | 3 | CHI @ CLE | 6–26 | -7.2 | -7.5 | -20.0 | 12.8 |
| 2021 | 3 | CIN @ PIT | 24–10 | -3.1 | -2.5 | +14.0 | 17.1 |
| 2021 | 3 | GB @ SF | 30–28 | -2.8 | -3.5 | +2.0 | 4.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | IND @ TEN | 16–25 | -2.4 | -4.5 | -9.0 | 6.6 |
| 2021 | 3 | LAC @ KC | 30–24 | -5.5 | -6.5 | +6.0 | 11.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | MIA @ LV | 28–31 | -2.8 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | NO @ NE | 28–13 | -1.3 | -3.0 | +15.0 | 16.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | NYJ @ DEN | 0–26 | -9.0 | -10.5 | -26.0 | 17.0 |
| 2021 | 3 | PHI @ DAL | 21–41 | -3.1 | -3.5 | -20.0 | 16.9 |
| 2021 | 3 | SEA @ MIN | 17–30 | +1.5 | +2.0 | -13.0 | 14.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | TB @ LA | 24–34 | +0.9 | +1.0 | -10.0 | 10.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | WAS @ BUF | 21–43 | -7.4 | -7.5 | -22.0 | 14.6 |
| 2021 | 2 | ATL @ TB | 25–48 | -11.1 | -13.5 | -23.0 | 11.9 |
| 2021 | 2 | BUF @ MIA | 35–0 | +3.0 | +3.5 | +35.0 | 32.0 |
| 2021 | 2 | CIN @ CHI | 17–20 | -1.4 | -2.0 | -3.0 | 1.6 |
| 2021 | 2 | DAL @ LAC | 20–17 | -2.6 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 2 | DEN @ JAX | 23–13 | +6.0 | +6.0 | +10.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 2 | DET @ GB | 17–35 | -10.8 | -11.5 | -18.0 | 7.2 |
| 2021 | 2 | HOU @ CLE | 21–31 | -10.7 | -13.5 | -10.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 2 | KC @ BAL | 35–36 | +2.1 | +3.5 | -1.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |