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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13 | KC @ DAL | 28–31 | +4.1 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 7.1 |
| 2025 | 13 | LA @ CAR | 28–31 | +10.6 | +10.0 | -3.0 | 13.6 |
| 2025 | 13 | LV @ LAC | 14–31 | -9.8 | -10.0 | -17.0 | 7.2 |
| 2025 | 13 | MIN @ SEA | 0–26 | -11.5 | -12.5 | -26.0 | 14.5 |
| 2025 | 13 | NO @ MIA |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| 17–21 |
| -5.8 |
| -5.5 |
| -4.0 |
| 1.8 |
| 2025 | 13 | NYG @ NE | 15–33 | -7.2 | -7.0 | -18.0 | 10.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | SF @ CLE | 26–8 | +5.3 | +5.5 | +18.0 | 12.7 |
| 2025 | 12 | ATL @ NO | 24–10 | +0.1 | -1.5 | +14.0 | 13.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | BUF @ HOU | 19–23 | +3.5 | +5.5 | -4.0 | 7.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | CAR @ SF | 9–20 | -8.4 | -7.5 | -11.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | CLE @ LV | 24–10 | -1.8 | -3.0 | +14.0 | 15.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | IND @ KC | 20–23 | -4.2 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2025 | 12 | JAX @ ARI | 27–24 | +1.6 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 1.4 |
| 2025 | 12 | MIN @ GB | 6–23 | -6.9 | -6.5 | -17.0 | 10.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | NE @ CIN | 26–20 | +4.9 | +7.5 | +6.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | NYG @ DET | 27–34 | -13.1 | -14.0 | -7.0 | 6.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | NYJ @ BAL | 10–23 | -12.8 | -14.0 | -13.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | PHI @ DAL | 21–24 | +4.2 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 7.2 |
| 2025 | 12 | PIT @ CHI | 28–31 | -2.4 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.6 |
| 2025 | 12 | SEA @ TEN | 30–24 | +13.0 | +12.5 | +6.0 | 7.0 |
| 2025 | 12 | TB @ LA | 7–34 | -6.0 | -7.0 | -27.0 | 21.0 |
| 2025 | 11 | BAL @ CLE | 23–16 | +8.0 | +7.5 | +7.0 | 1.0 |
| 2025 | 11 | CAR @ ATL | 30–27 | -5.3 | -4.5 | +3.0 | 8.3 |
| 2025 | 11 | CHI @ MIN | 19–17 | -1.7 | -3.0 | +2.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | CIN @ PIT | 12–34 | -4.2 | -5.5 | -22.0 | 17.8 |
| 2025 | 11 | DAL @ LV | 33–16 | +2.2 | +3.5 | +17.0 | 14.8 |
| 2025 | 11 | DET @ PHI | 9–16 | -2.0 | -2.5 | -7.0 | 5.0 |
| 2025 | 11 | GB @ NYG | 27–20 | +7.3 | +7.5 | +7.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | HOU @ TEN | 16–13 | +6.7 | +5.5 | +3.0 | 3.7 |
| 2025 | 11 | KC @ DEN | 19–22 | +2.4 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | LAC @ JAX | 6–35 | +2.5 | +3.0 | -29.0 | 31.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 11 | NYJ @ NE | 14–27 | -10.3 | -12.5 | -13.0 | 2.7 |
| 2025 | 11 | SEA @ LA | 19–21 | -0.8 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 1.2 |
| 2025 | 11 | SF @ ARI | 41–22 | +3.4 | +3.5 | +19.0 | 15.6 |
| 2025 | 11 | TB @ BUF | 32–44 | -5.1 | -6.0 | -12.0 | 6.9 |
| 2025 | 11 | WAS vs MIA | 13–16 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 0.5 |
| 2025 | 10 | ARI @ SEA | 22–44 | -6.4 | -7.0 | -22.0 | 15.6 |
| 2025 | 10 | ATL vs IND | 25–31 | -5.7 | -6.5 | -6.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | BAL @ MIN | 27–19 | +4.8 | +4.5 | +8.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | BUF @ MIA | 13–30 | +8.6 | +8.5 | -17.0 | 25.6 |
| 2025 | 10 | CLE @ NYJ | 20–27 | -0.5 | +1.5 | -7.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | DET @ WAS | 44–22 | +7.3 | +8.5 | +22.0 | 14.7 |
| 2025 | 10 | JAX @ HOU | 29–36 | -1.9 | +1.5 | -7.0 | 5.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | LA @ SF | 42–26 | +3.6 | +5.5 | +16.0 | 12.4 |
| 2025 | 10 | LV @ DEN | 7–10 | -10.5 | -9.5 | -3.0 | 7.5 |
| 2025 | 10 | NE @ TB | 28–23 | -3.0 | -2.5 | +5.0 | 8.0 |
| 2025 | 10 | NO @ CAR | 17–7 | -4.8 | -5.5 | +10.0 | 14.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | NYG @ CHI | 20–24 | -5.4 | -4.5 | -4.0 | 1.4 |
| 2025 | 10 | PHI @ GB | 10–7 | -0.9 | -1.5 | +3.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 10 | PIT @ LAC | 10–25 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -15.0 | 11.9 (model closer than the closing line) |