NFL Forecast History

2761 completed games

Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.

Pick history

NFL backtest forecast history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2020	17	SEA vs SF	26–23	+3.8	+7.0	+3.0	0.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	17	TEN @ HOU	41–38	+6.2	+7.0	+3.0	3.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2020	17	WAS @ PHI	20–14	+1.5	+6.5	+6.0	4.5
2020	16	ATL @ KC	14–17	-9.3	-11.0	-3.0	6.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2020

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.