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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 14 | WAS vs SF | 23–15 | -3.9 | -3.0 | +8.0 | 11.9 |
| 2020 | 13 | BUF vs SF | 34–24 | -1.2 | -1.5 | +10.0 | 11.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 13 | CIN @ MIA | 7–19 | -8.5 | -10.5 | -12.0 | 3.5 |
| 2020 | 13 | CLE @ TEN | 41–35 | -4.2 | -4.0 | +6.0 | 10.2 |
| 2020 | 13 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| DAL @ BAL |
| 17–34 |
| -7.9 |
| -8.5 |
| -17.0 |
| 9.1 |
| 2020 | 13 | DEN @ KC | 16–22 | -12.5 | -13.0 | -6.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 13 | DET @ CHI | 34–30 | -2.4 | -3.0 | +4.0 | 6.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 13 | IND @ HOU | 26–20 | +2.8 | +3.5 | +6.0 | 3.2 |
| 2020 | 13 | JAX @ MIN | 24–27 | -9.1 | -10.5 | -3.0 | 6.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 13 | LA @ ARI | 38–28 | +1.9 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 8.1 |
| 2020 | 13 | LV @ NYJ | 31–28 | +6.7 | +7.5 | +3.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 13 | NE @ LAC | 45–0 | -2.0 | -2.5 | +45.0 | 47.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 13 | NO @ ATL | 21–16 | +4.0 | +2.5 | +5.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 13 | NYG @ SEA | 17–12 | -8.4 | -11.0 | +5.0 | 13.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 13 | PHI @ GB | 16–30 | -8.2 | -8.0 | -14.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 13 | WAS @ PIT | 23–17 | -7.1 | -5.5 | +6.0 | 13.1 |
| 2020 | 12 | ARI @ NE | 17–20 | +0.5 | +1.0 | -3.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 12 | BAL @ PIT | 14–19 | -4.9 | -10.5 | -5.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 12 | CAR @ MIN | 27–28 | -4.3 | -3.0 | -1.0 | 3.3 |
| 2020 | 12 | CHI @ GB | 25–41 | -6.9 | -7.5 | -16.0 | 9.1 |
| 2020 | 12 | CLE @ JAX | 27–25 | +6.7 | +7.5 | +2.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 12 | HOU @ DET | 41–25 | +1.9 | +3.0 | +16.0 | 14.1 |
| 2020 | 12 | KC @ TB | 27–24 | +3.7 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 0.7 |
| 2020 | 12 | LAC @ BUF | 17–27 | -3.2 | -4.5 | -10.0 | 6.8 |
| 2020 | 12 | LV @ ATL | 6–43 | +1.6 | +3.5 | -37.0 | 38.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 12 | MIA @ NYJ | 20–3 | +6.9 | +7.5 | +17.0 | 10.1 |
| 2020 | 12 | NO @ DEN | 31–3 | +12.4 | +17.0 | +28.0 | 15.6 |
| 2020 | 12 | NYG @ CIN | 19–17 | +3.2 | +6.5 | +2.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 12 | SEA @ PHI | 23–17 | +4.2 | +6.5 | +6.0 | 1.8 |
| 2020 | 12 | SF @ LA | 23–20 | -2.9 | -5.0 | +3.0 | 5.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 12 | TEN @ IND | 45–26 | -3.0 | -3.0 | +19.0 | 22.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 12 | WAS @ DAL | 41–16 | -2.9 | -2.5 | +25.0 | 27.9 |
| 2020 | 11 | ARI @ SEA | 21–28 | -2.2 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 4.8 |
| 2020 | 11 | ATL @ NO | 9–24 | -5.3 | -3.5 | -15.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 11 | CIN @ WAS | 9–20 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -11.0 | 10.4 |
| 2020 | 11 | DAL @ MIN | 31–28 | -5.9 | -7.0 | +3.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 11 | DET @ CAR | 0–20 | +1.2 | +3.0 | -20.0 | 21.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 11 | GB @ IND | 31–34 | -0.2 | -1.5 | -3.0 | 2.8 |
| 2020 | 11 | KC @ LV | 35–31 | +6.9 | +7.5 | +4.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 11 | LA @ TB | 27–24 | -2.7 | -4.0 | +3.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 11 | MIA @ DEN | 13–20 | +3.3 | +4.0 | -7.0 | 10.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 11 | NE @ HOU | 20–27 | +2.8 | +2.5 | -7.0 | 9.8 |
| 2020 | 11 | NYJ @ LAC | 28–34 | -8.6 | -10.0 | -6.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 11 | PHI @ CLE | 17–22 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -5.0 | 3.5 |
| 2020 | 11 | PIT @ JAX | 27–3 | +11.1 | +11.0 | +24.0 | 12.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 11 | TEN @ BAL | 30–24 | -6.5 | -6.0 | +6.0 | 12.5 |
| 2020 | 10 | BAL @ NE | 17–23 | +7.5 | +7.0 | -6.0 | 13.5 |
| 2020 | 10 | BUF @ ARI | 30–32 | -0.8 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 1.2 |
| 2020 | 10 | CIN @ PIT | 10–36 | -7.1 | -6.5 | -26.0 | 18.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 10 | DEN @ LV | 12–37 | -2.6 | -3.5 | -25.0 | 22.4 |