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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 10 | HOU @ CLE | 7–10 | -4.1 | -4.5 | -3.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 10 | IND @ TEN | 34–17 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +17.0 | 16.4 |
| 2020 | 10 | JAX @ GB | 20–24 | -13.7 | -13.5 | -4.0 | 9.7 |
| 2020 | 10 | LAC @ MIA | 21–29 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -8.0 | 7.4 |
| 2020 | 10 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| MIN @ CHI |
| 19–13 |
| +2.7 |
| +3.5 |
| +6.0 |
| 3.3 |
| 2020 | 10 | PHI @ NYG | 17–27 | +3.4 | +4.5 | -10.0 | 13.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 10 | SEA @ LA | 16–23 | -1.7 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 5.3 |
| 2020 | 10 | SF @ NO | 13–27 | -7.1 | -9.5 | -14.0 | 6.9 |
| 2020 | 10 | TB @ CAR | 46–23 | +4.8 | +6.0 | +23.0 | 18.2 |
| 2020 | 10 | WAS @ DET | 27–30 | -1.8 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2020 | 9 | BAL @ IND | 24–10 | +1.1 | -1.0 | +14.0 | 12.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 9 | CAR @ KC | 31–33 | -11.2 | -10.0 | -2.0 | 9.2 |
| 2020 | 9 | CHI @ TEN | 17–24 | -4.5 | -6.5 | -7.0 | 2.5 |
| 2020 | 9 | DEN @ ATL | 27–34 | -3.0 | -4.5 | -7.0 | 4.0 |
| 2020 | 9 | DET @ MIN | 20–34 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 10.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 9 | GB @ SF | 34–17 | +2.5 | +6.0 | +17.0 | 14.5 |
| 2020 | 9 | HOU @ JAX | 27–25 | +5.2 | +7.0 | +2.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 9 | LV @ LAC | 31–26 | -0.4 | +1.0 | +5.0 | 5.4 |
| 2020 | 9 | MIA @ ARI | 34–31 | -3.7 | -6.0 | +3.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 9 | NE @ NYJ | 30–27 | +7.9 | +9.5 | +3.0 | 4.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 9 | NO @ TB | 38–3 | -2.3 | -3.0 | +35.0 | 37.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 9 | NYG @ WAS | 23–20 | -1.7 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 9 | PIT @ DAL | 24–19 | +11.1 | +14.0 | +5.0 | 6.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 9 | SEA @ BUF | 34–44 | +2.8 | +3.0 | -10.0 | 12.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 8 | ATL @ CAR | 25–17 | -0.2 | -1.5 | +8.0 | 8.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 8 | DAL @ PHI | 9–23 | -6.5 | -10.0 | -14.0 | 7.5 |
| 2020 | 8 | IND @ DET | 41–21 | +3.4 | +3.5 | +20.0 | 16.6 |
| 2020 | 8 | LA @ MIA | 17–28 | +2.6 | +3.5 | -11.0 | 13.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 8 | LAC @ DEN | 30–31 | +2.1 | +3.0 | -1.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 8 | LV @ CLE | 16–6 | -1.4 | -1.0 | +10.0 | 11.4 |
| 2020 | 8 | MIN @ GB | 28–22 | -6.6 | -5.5 | +6.0 | 12.6 |
| 2020 | 8 | NE @ BUF | 21–24 | -3.2 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 8 | NO @ CHI | 26–23 | +5.2 | +5.5 | +3.0 | 2.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 8 | NYJ @ KC | 9–35 | -18.4 | -20.0 | -26.0 | 7.6 |
| 2020 | 8 | PIT @ BAL | 28–24 | -3.8 | -4.0 | +4.0 | 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 8 | SF @ SEA | 27–37 | +1.6 | -1.0 | -10.0 | 11.6 |
| 2020 | 8 | TB @ NYG | 25–23 | +11.4 | +13.0 | +2.0 | 9.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 8 | TEN @ CIN | 20–31 | +6.8 | +7.5 | -11.0 | 17.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | BUF @ NYJ | 18–10 | +8.7 | +9.5 | +8.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | CAR @ NO | 24–27 | -7.1 | -7.0 | -3.0 | 4.1 |
| 2020 | 7 | CHI @ LA | 10–24 | -4.7 | -6.5 | -14.0 | 9.3 |
| 2020 | 7 | CLE @ CIN | 37–34 | +3.9 | +4.5 | +3.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | DAL @ WAS | 3–25 | +2.4 | +1.0 | -22.0 | 24.4 |
| 2020 | 7 | DET @ ATL | 23–22 | -1.6 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 2.6 |
| 2020 | 7 | GB @ HOU | 35–20 | +4.3 | +2.5 | +15.0 | 10.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | JAX @ LAC | 29–39 | -8.6 | -8.0 | -10.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | KC @ DEN | 43–16 | +7.6 | +7.0 | +27.0 | 19.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | NYG @ PHI | 21–22 | -4.4 | -5.0 | -1.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | PIT @ TEN | 27–24 | -0.2 | -1.0 | +3.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 7 | SEA @ ARI | 34–37 | +2.1 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 5.1 (model closer than the closing line) |