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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3 | GB @ NO | 37–30 | -2.0 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 9.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 3 | HOU @ PIT | 21–28 | -5.6 | -4.0 | -7.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 3 | KC @ BAL | 34–20 | -3.0 | -3.5 | +14.0 | 17.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 3 | LA @ BUF | 32–35 | -1.2 | -1.5 | -3.0 | 1.8 |
| 2020 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| 3 |
| LV @ NE |
| 20–36 |
| -5.6 |
| -7.0 |
| -16.0 |
| 10.4 |
| 2020 | 3 | MIA @ JAX | 31–13 | -2.4 | -3.0 | +18.0 | 20.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 3 | NYJ @ IND | 7–36 | -10.8 | -12.5 | -29.0 | 18.2 |
| 2020 | 3 | SF @ NYG | 36–9 | +5.1 | +3.0 | +27.0 | 21.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 3 | TB @ DEN | 28–10 | +4.0 | +6.0 | +18.0 | 14.0 |
| 2020 | 3 | TEN @ MIN | 31–30 | +2.8 | +3.0 | +1.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 3 | WAS @ CLE | 20–34 | -6.9 | -7.5 | -14.0 | 7.1 |
| 2020 | 2 | ATL @ DAL | 39–40 | -4.5 | -3.0 | -1.0 | 3.5 |
| 2020 | 2 | BAL @ HOU | 33–16 | +8.0 | +7.5 | +17.0 | 9.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 2 | BUF @ MIA | 31–28 | +5.6 | +5.5 | +3.0 | 2.6 |
| 2020 | 2 | CAR @ TB | 17–31 | -7.6 | -7.5 | -14.0 | 6.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 2 | CIN @ CLE | 30–35 | -5.0 | -6.0 | -5.0 | 0.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 2 | DEN @ PIT | 21–26 | -5.6 | -6.0 | -5.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 2 | DET @ GB | 21–42 | -7.1 | -7.0 | -21.0 | 13.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 2 | JAX @ TEN | 30–33 | -7.4 | -7.0 | -3.0 | 4.4 |
| 2020 | 2 | KC @ LAC | 23–20 | +7.0 | +8.5 | +3.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 2 | LA @ PHI | 37–19 | -1.4 | -2.0 | +18.0 | 19.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 2 | MIN @ IND | 11–28 | -3.1 | -3.5 | -17.0 | 13.9 |
| 2020 | 2 | NE @ SEA | 30–35 | -3.1 | -4.0 | -5.0 | 1.9 |
| 2020 | 2 | NO @ LV | 24–34 | +4.2 | +4.0 | -10.0 | 14.2 |
| 2020 | 2 | NYG @ CHI | 13–17 | -4.6 | -4.5 | -4.0 | 0.6 |
| 2020 | 2 | SF @ NYJ | 31–13 | +6.5 | +7.0 | +18.0 | 11.5 |
| 2020 | 2 | WAS @ ARI | 15–30 | -6.3 | -7.5 | -15.0 | 8.7 |
| 2020 | 1 | ARI @ SF | 24–20 | -6.8 | -7.0 | +4.0 | 10.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 1 | CHI @ DET | 27–23 | -0.5 | -2.5 | +4.0 | 4.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 1 | CLE @ BAL | 6–38 | -6.9 | -7.0 | -32.0 | 25.1 |
| 2020 | 1 | DAL @ LA | 17–20 | -0.2 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 2.8 |
| 2020 | 1 | GB @ MIN | 43–34 | -1.6 | -1.0 | +9.0 | 10.6 |
| 2020 | 1 | HOU @ KC | 20–34 | -8.9 | -9.5 | -14.0 | 5.1 |
| 2020 | 1 | IND @ JAX | 20–27 | +5.6 | +7.0 | -7.0 | 12.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 1 | LAC @ CIN | 16–13 | +2.9 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 1 | LV @ CAR | 34–30 | +2.8 | +3.0 | +4.0 | 1.2 |
| 2020 | 1 | MIA @ NE | 11–21 | -6.8 | -7.5 | -10.0 | 3.2 |
| 2020 | 1 | NYJ @ BUF | 17–27 | -5.6 | -6.5 | -10.0 | 4.4 |
| 2020 | 1 | PHI @ WAS | 17–27 | +4.9 | +5.5 | -10.0 | 14.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 1 | PIT @ NYG | 26–16 | +3.9 | +6.0 | +10.0 | 6.1 |
| 2020 | 1 | SEA @ ATL | 38–25 | -0.3 | -1.0 | +13.0 | 13.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 1 | TB @ NO | 23–34 | -3.7 | -4.0 | -11.0 | 7.3 |
| 2020 | 1 | TEN @ DEN | 16–14 | +2.0 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 0.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 21 | SF vs KC | 20–31 | -3.0 | -1.5 | -11.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 20 | GB @ SF | 20–37 | -4.7 | -8.0 | -17.0 | 12.3 |
| 2019 | 20 | TEN @ KC | 24–35 | -6.3 | -7.5 | -11.0 | 4.7 |
| 2019 | 19 | HOU @ KC | 31–51 | -10.1 | -10.0 | -20.0 | 9.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 19 | MIN @ SF | 10–27 | -3.7 | -7.0 | -17.0 | 13.3 |
| 2019 | 19 | SEA @ GB | 23–28 | -2.9 | -4.5 | -5.0 | 2.1 |
| 2019 | 19 | TEN @ BAL | 28–12 | -7.4 | -10.0 | +16.0 | 23.4 (model closer than the closing line) |