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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 8 | PHI @ BUF | 31–13 | -0.6 | -1.0 | +18.0 | 18.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 8 | SEA @ ATL | 27–20 | +5.6 | +7.5 | +7.0 | 1.4 |
| 2019 | 8 | TB @ TEN | 23–27 | -1.8 | -2.0 | -4.0 | 2.2 |
| 2019 | 8 | WAS @ MIN | 9–19 | -13.8 | -16.5 | -10.0 | 3.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 7 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| ARI @ NYG |
| 27–21 |
| -3.5 |
| -3.5 |
| +6.0 |
| 9.5 |
| 2019 | 7 | BAL @ SEA | 30–16 | -2.3 | -3.0 | +14.0 | 16.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 7 | HOU @ IND | 23–30 | +0.0 | -1.5 | -7.0 | 7.0 |
| 2019 | 7 | JAX @ CIN | 27–17 | +3.9 | +4.0 | +10.0 | 6.1 |
| 2019 | 7 | KC @ DEN | 30–6 | +3.7 | +3.0 | +24.0 | 20.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 7 | LA @ ATL | 37–10 | +3.5 | +3.0 | +27.0 | 23.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 7 | LAC @ TEN | 20–23 | -2.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 1.0 |
| 2019 | 7 | MIA @ BUF | 21–31 | -14.0 | -17.0 | -10.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 7 | MIN @ DET | 42–30 | +3.0 | +2.5 | +12.0 | 9.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 7 | NE @ NYJ | 33–0 | +9.8 | +9.5 | +33.0 | 23.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 7 | NO @ CHI | 36–25 | -3.0 | -4.0 | +11.0 | 14.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 7 | LV @ GB | 24–42 | -5.4 | -5.5 | -18.0 | 12.6 |
| 2019 | 7 | PHI @ DAL | 10–37 | -2.1 | -3.0 | -27.0 | 24.9 |
| 2019 | 7 | SF @ WAS | 9–0 | +9.1 | +10.0 | +9.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 6 | ATL @ ARI | 33–34 | +2.4 | +3.0 | -1.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 6 | CAR vs TB | 37–26 | +1.8 | +2.0 | +11.0 | 9.2 |
| 2019 | 6 | CIN @ BAL | 17–23 | -9.7 | -10.5 | -6.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 6 | DAL @ NYJ | 22–24 | +6.5 | +7.0 | -2.0 | 8.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 6 | DET @ GB | 22–23 | -3.7 | -3.5 | -1.0 | 2.7 |
| 2019 | 6 | HOU @ KC | 31–24 | -4.2 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 11.2 |
| 2019 | 6 | NO @ JAX | 13–6 | -0.3 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 7.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 6 | NYG @ NE | 14–35 | -14.5 | -16.5 | -21.0 | 6.5 |
| 2019 | 6 | PHI @ MIN | 20–38 | -3.0 | -3.5 | -18.0 | 15.0 |
| 2019 | 6 | PIT @ LAC | 24–17 | -3.8 | -6.0 | +7.0 | 10.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 6 | SEA @ CLE | 32–28 | -0.4 | -1.0 | +4.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 6 | SF @ LA | 20–7 | -2.6 | -3.0 | +13.0 | 15.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 6 | TEN @ DEN | 0–16 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -16.0 | 15.4 |
| 2019 | 6 | WAS @ MIA | 17–16 | +3.5 | +6.0 | +1.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 5 | ARI @ CIN | 26–23 | -2.8 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 5 | ATL @ HOU | 32–53 | -4.1 | -4.0 | -21.0 | 16.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 5 | BAL @ PIT | 26–23 | +1.3 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 1.7 |
| 2019 | 5 | BUF @ TEN | 14–7 | -2.8 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 9.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 5 | CHI vs LV | 21–24 | +7.0 | +6.5 | -3.0 | 10.0 |
| 2019 | 5 | CLE @ SF | 3–31 | -2.4 | -5.0 | -28.0 | 25.6 |
| 2019 | 5 | DEN @ LAC | 20–13 | -5.0 | -4.0 | +7.0 | 12.0 |
| 2019 | 5 | GB @ DAL | 34–24 | -3.6 | -3.5 | +10.0 | 13.6 |
| 2019 | 5 | IND @ KC | 19–13 | -9.3 | -10.5 | +6.0 | 15.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 5 | JAX @ CAR | 27–34 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 5 | LA @ SEA | 29–30 | -0.9 | -1.5 | -1.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 5 | MIN @ NYG | 28–10 | +4.4 | +5.5 | +18.0 | 13.6 |
| 2019 | 5 | NE @ WAS | 33–7 | +14.4 | +15.5 | +26.0 | 11.6 |
| 2019 | 5 | NYJ @ PHI | 6–31 | -10.3 | -14.0 | -25.0 | 14.7 |
| 2019 | 5 | TB @ NO | 24–31 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 4 | CAR @ HOU | 16–10 | -3.4 | -5.5 | +6.0 | 9.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 4 | CIN @ PIT | 3–27 | -4.6 | -3.5 | -24.0 | 19.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 4 | CLE @ BAL | 40–25 | -5.6 | -7.5 | +15.0 | 20.6 (model closer than the closing line) |