Loading NFL data...
Loading NFL data...
Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 4 | DAL @ NO | 10–12 | +1.2 | +2.5 | -2.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 4 | JAX @ DEN | 26–24 | -1.1 | -2.5 | +2.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 4 | KC @ DET | 34–30 | +6.6 | +7.5 | +4.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 4 | LAC @ MIA | 30–10 | +12.3 | +15.0 | +20.0 | 7.7 |
| 2019 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| 4 |
| MIN @ CHI |
| 6–16 |
| -0.4 |
| +1.0 |
| -10.0 |
| 9.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 4 | NE @ BUF | 16–10 | +7.2 | +7.0 | +6.0 | 1.2 |
| 2019 | 4 | LV @ IND | 31–24 | -5.9 | -5.5 | +7.0 | 12.9 |
| 2019 | 4 | PHI @ GB | 34–27 | -2.7 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 4 | SEA @ ARI | 27–10 | +4.8 | +5.5 | +17.0 | 12.2 |
| 2019 | 4 | TB @ LA | 55–40 | -8.5 | -9.0 | +15.0 | 23.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 4 | TEN @ ATL | 24–10 | -2.1 | -3.5 | +14.0 | 16.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 4 | WAS @ NYG | 3–24 | -3.3 | -3.0 | -21.0 | 17.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 3 | ATL @ IND | 24–27 | -2.3 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 3 | BAL @ KC | 28–33 | -4.2 | -4.5 | -5.0 | 0.8 |
| 2019 | 3 | CAR @ ARI | 38–20 | +0.1 | -2.5 | +18.0 | 17.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 3 | CHI @ WAS | 31–15 | +4.5 | +5.0 | +16.0 | 11.5 |
| 2019 | 3 | CIN @ BUF | 17–21 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -4.0 | 1.5 |
| 2019 | 3 | DEN @ GB | 16–27 | -5.7 | -7.0 | -11.0 | 5.3 |
| 2019 | 3 | DET @ PHI | 27–24 | -3.9 | -4.0 | +3.0 | 6.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 3 | HOU @ LAC | 27–20 | -2.7 | -3.0 | +7.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 3 | LA @ CLE | 20–13 | +2.7 | +4.0 | +7.0 | 4.3 |
| 2019 | 3 | MIA @ DAL | 6–31 | -17.4 | -22.0 | -25.0 | 7.6 |
| 2019 | 3 | NO @ SEA | 33–27 | -4.1 | -5.0 | +6.0 | 10.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 3 | NYG @ TB | 32–31 | -4.1 | -5.0 | +1.0 | 5.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 3 | NYJ @ NE | 14–30 | -16.2 | -20.5 | -16.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 3 | LV @ MIN | 14–34 | -7.7 | -8.5 | -20.0 | 12.3 |
| 2019 | 3 | PIT @ SF | 20–24 | -3.8 | -6.0 | -4.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 3 | TEN @ JAX | 7–20 | +1.0 | +1.5 | -13.0 | 14.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 2 | ARI @ BAL | 17–23 | -11.5 | -13.0 | -6.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 2 | BUF @ NYG | 28–14 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +14.0 | 13.5 |
| 2019 | 2 | CHI @ DEN | 16–14 | +2.7 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 2 | CLE @ NYJ | 23–3 | +3.9 | +6.5 | +20.0 | 16.1 |
| 2019 | 2 | DAL @ WAS | 31–21 | +4.4 | +6.0 | +10.0 | 5.6 |
| 2019 | 2 | IND @ TEN | 19–17 | -2.3 | -3.0 | +2.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 2 | JAX @ HOU | 12–13 | -5.7 | -7.5 | -1.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 2 | KC @ LV | 28–10 | +6.1 | +7.0 | +18.0 | 11.9 |
| 2019 | 2 | LAC @ DET | 10–13 | +1.0 | +1.0 | -3.0 | 4.0 |
| 2019 | 2 | MIN @ GB | 16–21 | -1.7 | -3.0 | -5.0 | 3.3 |
| 2019 | 2 | NE @ MIA | 43–0 | +14.5 | +18.0 | +43.0 | 28.5 |
| 2019 | 2 | NO @ LA | 9–27 | -2.4 | -2.0 | -18.0 | 15.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 2 | PHI @ ATL | 20–24 | +1.2 | +1.0 | -4.0 | 5.2 |
| 2019 | 2 | SEA @ PIT | 28–26 | -2.7 | -4.0 | +2.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 2 | SF @ CIN | 41–17 | -0.2 | -1.0 | +24.0 | 24.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 2 | TB @ CAR | 20–14 | -5.8 | -6.5 | +6.0 | 11.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 1 | ATL @ MIN | 12–28 | -3.0 | -3.5 | -16.0 | 13.0 |
| 2019 | 1 | BAL @ MIA | 59–10 | +5.3 | +7.0 | +49.0 | 43.7 |
| 2019 | 1 | BUF @ NYJ | 17–16 | -1.7 | -2.5 | +1.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 1 | CIN @ SEA | 20–21 | -8.4 | -9.5 | -1.0 | 7.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 1 | DEN @ LV | 16–24 | +1.3 | +3.0 | -8.0 | 9.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 1 | DET @ ARI | 27–27 | +2.2 | +2.5 | 0.0 | 2.2 (model closer than the closing line) |