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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 1 | GB @ CHI | 10–3 | -3.6 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 10.6 |
| 2019 | 1 | HOU @ NO | 28–30 | -5.1 | -6.5 | -2.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 1 | IND @ LAC | 24–30 | -4.4 | -6.0 | -6.0 | 1.6 |
| 2019 | 1 | KC @ JAX | 40–26 | +3.5 | +3.5 | +14.0 | 10.5 |
| 2019 | 1 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| 30–27 |
| +1.1 |
| +1.5 |
| +3.0 |
| 1.9 |
| 2019 | 1 | NYG @ DAL | 17–35 | -5.7 | -7.0 | -18.0 | 12.3 |
| 2019 | 1 | PIT @ NE | 3–33 | -5.2 | -5.5 | -30.0 | 24.8 |
| 2019 | 1 | SF @ TB | 31–17 | -1.0 | -1.0 | +14.0 | 15.0 |
| 2019 | 1 | TEN @ CLE | 43–13 | -4.3 | -5.5 | +30.0 | 34.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 1 | WAS @ PHI | 27–32 | -8.7 | -10.5 | -5.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 21 | NE vs LA | 13–3 | +1.8 | +2.0 | +10.0 | 8.2 |
| 2018 | 20 | LA @ NO | 26–23 | -1.6 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 20 | NE @ KC | 37–31 | -2.2 | -3.0 | +6.0 | 8.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 19 | DAL @ LA | 22–30 | -6.6 | -7.5 | -8.0 | 1.4 |
| 2018 | 19 | IND @ KC | 13–31 | -4.0 | -4.0 | -18.0 | 14.0 |
| 2018 | 19 | LAC @ NE | 28–41 | -3.5 | -4.0 | -13.0 | 9.5 |
| 2018 | 19 | PHI @ NO | 14–20 | -3.8 | -8.5 | -6.0 | 2.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 18 | IND @ HOU | 21–7 | -2.2 | -2.0 | +14.0 | 16.2 |
| 2018 | 18 | LAC @ BAL | 23–17 | -1.2 | -3.0 | +6.0 | 7.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 18 | PHI @ CHI | 16–15 | -4.3 | -6.5 | +1.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 18 | SEA @ DAL | 22–24 | -1.4 | -2.5 | -2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2018 | 17 | ARI @ SEA | 24–27 | -13.3 | -15.5 | -3.0 | 10.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 17 | ATL @ TB | 34–32 | +1.8 | +2.5 | +2.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 17 | CAR @ NO | 33–14 | -8.8 | -8.0 | +19.0 | 27.8 |
| 2018 | 17 | CHI @ MIN | 24–10 | -3.6 | -6.0 | +14.0 | 17.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 17 | CIN @ PIT | 13–16 | -13.3 | -14.0 | -3.0 | 10.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 17 | CLE @ BAL | 24–26 | -5.9 | -7.0 | -2.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 17 | DAL @ NYG | 36–35 | -4.0 | -7.5 | +1.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 17 | DET @ GB | 31–0 | -6.9 | -7.5 | +31.0 | 37.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 17 | IND @ TEN | 33–17 | +2.0 | +5.0 | +16.0 | 14.0 |
| 2018 | 17 | JAX @ HOU | 3–20 | -6.2 | -7.0 | -17.0 | 10.8 |
| 2018 | 17 | LAC @ DEN | 23–9 | +5.2 | +7.0 | +14.0 | 8.8 |
| 2018 | 17 | MIA @ BUF | 17–42 | -4.5 | -5.5 | -25.0 | 20.5 |
| 2018 | 17 | NYJ @ NE | 3–38 | -12.4 | -14.0 | -35.0 | 22.6 |
| 2018 | 17 | LV @ KC | 3–35 | -12.1 | -14.5 | -32.0 | 19.9 |
| 2018 | 17 | PHI @ WAS | 24–0 | +4.3 | +6.0 | +24.0 | 19.7 |
| 2018 | 17 | SF @ LA | 32–48 | -8.8 | -10.5 | -16.0 | 7.2 |
| 2018 | 16 | ATL @ CAR | 24–10 | +0.2 | +2.5 | +14.0 | 13.8 |
| 2018 | 16 | BAL @ LAC | 22–10 | -4.9 | -4.0 | +12.0 | 16.9 |
| 2018 | 16 | BUF @ NE | 12–24 | -11.6 | -14.0 | -12.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 16 | CHI @ SF | 14–9 | +3.0 | +3.5 | +5.0 | 2.0 |
| 2018 | 16 | CIN @ CLE | 18–26 | -7.8 | -10.0 | -8.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 16 | DEN @ LV | 14–27 | +2.2 | +2.5 | -13.0 | 15.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 16 | GB @ NYJ | 44–38 | +3.5 | +3.0 | +6.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 16 | HOU @ PHI | 30–32 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -2.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 16 | JAX @ MIA | 17–7 | -1.5 | -3.0 | +10.0 | 11.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 16 | KC @ SEA | 31–38 | +0.6 | +1.0 | -7.0 | 7.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 16 | LA @ ARI | 31–9 | +10.9 | +14.5 | +22.0 | 11.1 |
| 2018 | 16 | MIN @ DET | 27–9 | +3.8 | +6.5 | +18.0 | 14.2 |
| 2018 | 16 | NYG @ IND | 27–28 | -7.3 | -10.0 | -1.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |