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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 16 | PIT @ NO | 28–31 | -5.7 | -6.5 | -3.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 16 | TB @ DAL | 20–27 | -6.4 | -7.0 | -7.0 | 0.6 |
| 2018 | 16 | WAS @ TEN | 16–25 | -8.5 | -12.5 | -9.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 15 | ARI @ ATL | 14–40 | -7.7 | -10.0 | -26.0 | 18.3 |
| 2018 | 15 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| CLE @ DEN |
| 17–16 |
| -2.7 |
| -1.0 |
| +1.0 |
| 3.7 |
| 2018 | 15 | DAL @ IND | 0–23 | -1.5 | -3.0 | -23.0 | 21.5 |
| 2018 | 15 | DET @ BUF | 13–14 | -1.9 | -2.5 | -1.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 15 | GB @ CHI | 17–24 | -5.1 | -6.0 | -7.0 | 1.9 |
| 2018 | 15 | HOU @ NYJ | 29–22 | +6.0 | +7.0 | +7.0 | 1.0 |
| 2018 | 15 | LAC @ KC | 29–28 | -3.0 | -3.5 | +1.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 15 | MIA @ MIN | 17–41 | -7.2 | -7.5 | -24.0 | 16.8 |
| 2018 | 15 | NE @ PIT | 10–17 | +0.8 | +2.5 | -7.0 | 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 15 | NO @ CAR | 12–9 | +5.0 | +6.0 | +3.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 15 | LV @ CIN | 16–30 | -1.5 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 12.5 |
| 2018 | 15 | PHI @ LA | 30–23 | -9.7 | -13.5 | +7.0 | 16.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 15 | SEA @ SF | 23–26 | +2.5 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 15 | TB @ BAL | 12–20 | -7.1 | -8.5 | -8.0 | 0.9 |
| 2018 | 15 | TEN @ NYG | 17–0 | -0.3 | +2.5 | +17.0 | 17.3 |
| 2018 | 15 | WAS @ JAX | 16–13 | -6.3 | -7.5 | +3.0 | 9.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 14 | ATL @ GB | 20–34 | -3.8 | -4.0 | -14.0 | 10.2 |
| 2018 | 14 | BAL @ KC | 24–27 | -6.8 | -6.5 | -3.0 | 3.8 |
| 2018 | 14 | CAR @ CLE | 20–26 | +1.4 | +1.0 | -6.0 | 7.4 |
| 2018 | 14 | CIN @ LAC | 21–26 | -15.8 | -17.0 | -5.0 | 10.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 14 | DEN @ SF | 14–20 | +1.7 | +3.0 | -6.0 | 7.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 14 | DET @ ARI | 17–3 | +1.6 | +2.5 | +14.0 | 12.4 |
| 2018 | 14 | IND @ HOU | 24–21 | -4.4 | -4.0 | +3.0 | 7.4 |
| 2018 | 14 | JAX @ TEN | 9–30 | -2.6 | -5.5 | -21.0 | 18.4 |
| 2018 | 14 | LA @ CHI | 6–15 | +1.3 | +3.0 | -9.0 | 10.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 14 | MIN @ SEA | 7–21 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 11.3 |
| 2018 | 14 | NE @ MIA | 33–34 | +8.1 | +8.5 | -1.0 | 9.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 14 | NO @ TB | 28–14 | +8.4 | +8.5 | +14.0 | 5.6 |
| 2018 | 14 | NYG @ WAS | 40–16 | +1.1 | +3.0 | +24.0 | 22.9 |
| 2018 | 14 | NYJ @ BUF | 27–23 | -4.6 | -4.5 | +4.0 | 8.6 |
| 2018 | 14 | PHI @ DAL | 23–29 | -2.9 | -3.5 | -6.0 | 3.1 |
| 2018 | 14 | PIT @ LV | 21–24 | +8.7 | +10.5 | -3.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 13 | ARI @ GB | 20–17 | -11.2 | -13.5 | +3.0 | 14.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 13 | BAL @ ATL | 26–16 | -2.2 | -2.5 | +10.0 | 12.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 13 | BUF @ MIA | 17–21 | -1.7 | -3.5 | -4.0 | 2.3 |
| 2018 | 13 | CAR @ TB | 17–24 | +3.0 | +3.5 | -7.0 | 10.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 13 | CHI @ NYG | 27–30 | +3.1 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 6.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 13 | CLE @ HOU | 13–29 | -4.3 | -5.0 | -16.0 | 11.7 |
| 2018 | 13 | DEN @ CIN | 24–10 | +4.2 | +3.5 | +14.0 | 9.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 13 | IND @ JAX | 0–6 | +1.5 | +4.0 | -6.0 | 7.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 13 | KC @ LV | 40–33 | +11.4 | +14.0 | +7.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 13 | LA @ DET | 30–16 | +7.6 | +10.5 | +14.0 | 6.4 |
| 2018 | 13 | LAC @ PIT | 33–30 | -2.3 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 13 | MIN @ NE | 10–24 | -5.3 | -6.0 | -14.0 | 8.7 |
| 2018 | 13 | NO @ DAL | 10–13 | +5.5 | +7.0 | -3.0 | 8.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 13 | NYJ @ TEN | 22–26 | -7.5 | -10.5 | -4.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 13 | SF @ SEA | 16–43 | -6.9 | -10.0 | -27.0 | 20.1 |