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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 9 | LAC @ SEA | 25–17 | -0.8 | -1.0 | +8.0 | 8.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 9 | NYJ @ MIA | 6–13 | -1.6 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 5.4 |
| 2018 | 9 | LV @ SF | 3–34 | -1.3 | +1.5 | -31.0 | 29.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 9 | PIT @ BAL | 23–16 | -0.4 | -1.5 | +7.0 | 7.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| 9 |
| TB @ CAR |
| 28–42 |
| -6.6 |
| -6.0 |
| -14.0 |
| 7.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 9 | TEN @ DAL | 28–14 | -5.5 | -4.5 | +14.0 | 19.5 |
| 2018 | 8 | BAL @ CAR | 21–36 | +1.4 | +2.5 | -15.0 | 16.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 8 | CLE @ PIT | 18–33 | -8.5 | -8.5 | -15.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 8 | DEN @ KC | 23–30 | -8.4 | -8.5 | -7.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 8 | GB @ LA | 27–29 | -7.8 | -7.5 | -2.0 | 5.8 |
| 2018 | 8 | IND @ LV | 42–28 | +2.2 | +3.5 | +14.0 | 11.8 |
| 2018 | 8 | MIA @ HOU | 23–42 | -6.3 | -7.5 | -19.0 | 12.7 |
| 2018 | 8 | NE @ BUF | 25–6 | +10.3 | +13.5 | +19.0 | 8.7 |
| 2018 | 8 | NO @ MIN | 30–20 | +1.0 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 9.0 |
| 2018 | 8 | NYJ @ CHI | 10–24 | -7.1 | -8.5 | -14.0 | 6.9 |
| 2018 | 8 | PHI vs JAX | 24–18 | +4.3 | +4.0 | +6.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 8 | SEA @ DET | 28–14 | -2.1 | -3.0 | +14.0 | 16.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 8 | SF @ ARI | 15–18 | +2.8 | +2.5 | -3.0 | 5.8 |
| 2018 | 8 | TB @ CIN | 34–37 | -2.6 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 8 | WAS @ NYG | 20–13 | +0.7 | +1.0 | +7.0 | 6.3 |
| 2018 | 7 | BUF @ IND | 5–37 | -4.3 | -7.0 | -32.0 | 27.7 |
| 2018 | 7 | CAR @ PHI | 21–17 | -5.2 | -5.0 | +4.0 | 9.2 |
| 2018 | 7 | CIN @ KC | 10–45 | -7.8 | -6.5 | -35.0 | 27.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 7 | CLE @ TB | 23–26 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 7 | DAL @ WAS | 17–20 | +1.4 | +1.5 | -3.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 7 | DEN @ ARI | 45–10 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +35.0 | 34.9 |
| 2018 | 7 | DET @ MIA | 32–21 | +2.2 | +3.0 | +11.0 | 8.8 |
| 2018 | 7 | HOU @ JAX | 20–7 | -3.5 | -4.0 | +13.0 | 16.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 7 | LA @ SF | 39–10 | +6.1 | +8.0 | +29.0 | 22.9 |
| 2018 | 7 | MIN @ NYJ | 37–17 | +2.3 | +3.5 | +20.0 | 17.7 |
| 2018 | 7 | NE @ CHI | 38–31 | +0.7 | +1.0 | +7.0 | 6.3 |
| 2018 | 7 | NO @ BAL | 24–23 | -2.3 | -2.5 | +1.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 7 | NYG @ ATL | 20–23 | -5.0 | -4.5 | -3.0 | 2.0 |
| 2018 | 7 | TEN vs LAC | 19–20 | -7.0 | -6.5 | -1.0 | 6.0 |
| 2018 | 6 | ARI @ MIN | 17–27 | -8.4 | -10.0 | -10.0 | 1.6 |
| 2018 | 6 | BAL @ TEN | 21–0 | +1.2 | +2.5 | +21.0 | 19.8 |
| 2018 | 6 | BUF @ HOU | 13–20 | -6.8 | -10.5 | -7.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 6 | CAR @ WAS | 17–23 | -0.5 | +1.0 | -6.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 6 | CHI @ MIA | 28–31 | +5.5 | +7.5 | -3.0 | 8.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 6 | IND @ NYJ | 34–42 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -8.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 6 | JAX @ DAL | 7–40 | +1.5 | +3.0 | -33.0 | 34.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 6 | KC @ NE | 40–43 | -2.3 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 6 | LA @ DEN | 23–20 | +6.1 | +7.0 | +3.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 6 | LAC @ CLE | 38–14 | +1.1 | -1.0 | +24.0 | 22.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 6 | PHI @ NYG | 34–13 | +2.0 | +1.5 | +21.0 | 19.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 6 | PIT @ CIN | 28–21 | +0.0 | -1.0 | +7.0 | 7.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 6 | SEA vs LV | 27–3 | +3.4 | +3.0 | +24.0 | 20.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 6 | SF @ GB | 30–33 | -6.7 | -9.0 | -3.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 6 | TB @ ATL | 29–34 | -4.0 | -3.0 | -5.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 5 | ARI @ SF | 28–18 | -4.3 | -3.0 | +10.0 | 14.3 |