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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5 | ATL @ PIT | 17–41 | -3.1 | -3.5 | -24.0 | 20.9 |
| 2018 | 5 | BAL @ CLE | 9–12 | +2.6 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 5 | DAL @ HOU | 16–19 | -2.2 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 0.8 |
| 2018 | 5 | DEN @ NYJ | 16–34 | -0.0 | +1.0 | -18.0 | 18.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 5 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| GB @ DET |
| 23–31 |
| -1.2 |
| -1.0 |
| -8.0 |
| 6.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 5 | IND @ NE | 24–38 | -9.4 | -10.5 | -14.0 | 4.6 |
| 2018 | 5 | JAX @ KC | 14–30 | -2.5 | -3.0 | -16.0 | 13.5 |
| 2018 | 5 | LA @ SEA | 33–31 | +4.9 | +7.5 | +2.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 5 | MIA @ CIN | 17–27 | -5.4 | -6.0 | -10.0 | 4.6 |
| 2018 | 5 | MIN @ PHI | 23–21 | -4.6 | -3.5 | +2.0 | 6.6 |
| 2018 | 5 | NYG @ CAR | 31–33 | -6.5 | -7.0 | -2.0 | 4.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 5 | LV @ LAC | 10–26 | -6.5 | -5.5 | -16.0 | 9.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 5 | TEN @ BUF | 12–13 | +3.0 | +6.0 | -1.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 5 | WAS @ NO | 19–43 | -4.2 | -5.5 | -24.0 | 19.8 |
| 2018 | 4 | BAL @ PIT | 26–14 | -3.1 | -3.0 | +12.0 | 15.1 |
| 2018 | 4 | BUF @ GB | 0–22 | -4.9 | -8.5 | -22.0 | 17.1 |
| 2018 | 4 | CIN @ ATL | 37–36 | -3.6 | -3.5 | +1.0 | 4.6 |
| 2018 | 4 | CLE @ LV | 42–45 | -2.1 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 0.9 |
| 2018 | 4 | DET @ DAL | 24–26 | -2.4 | -2.5 | -2.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 4 | HOU @ IND | 37–34 | -0.6 | +1.0 | +3.0 | 3.6 |
| 2018 | 4 | KC @ DEN | 27–23 | +4.0 | +3.5 | +4.0 | 0.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 4 | MIA @ NE | 7–38 | -5.6 | -6.5 | -31.0 | 25.4 |
| 2018 | 4 | MIN @ LA | 31–38 | -7.7 | -7.5 | -7.0 | 0.7 |
| 2018 | 4 | NO @ NYG | 33–18 | +2.3 | +3.5 | +15.0 | 12.7 |
| 2018 | 4 | NYJ @ JAX | 12–31 | -7.2 | -7.5 | -19.0 | 11.8 |
| 2018 | 4 | PHI @ TEN | 23–26 | +3.0 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 6.0 |
| 2018 | 4 | SEA @ ARI | 20–17 | +3.9 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 0.9 |
| 2018 | 4 | SF @ LAC | 27–29 | -8.2 | -10.0 | -2.0 | 6.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 4 | TB @ CHI | 10–48 | -2.6 | -3.0 | -38.0 | 35.4 |
| 2018 | 3 | BUF @ MIN | 27–6 | -13.7 | -16.5 | +21.0 | 34.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 3 | CHI @ ARI | 16–14 | +5.6 | +6.0 | +2.0 | 3.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 3 | CIN @ CAR | 21–31 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -10.0 | 7.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 3 | DAL @ SEA | 13–24 | -0.7 | -1.0 | -11.0 | 10.3 |
| 2018 | 3 | DEN @ BAL | 14–27 | -5.0 | -5.5 | -13.0 | 8.0 |
| 2018 | 3 | GB @ WAS | 17–31 | -0.5 | +2.5 | -14.0 | 13.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 3 | IND @ PHI | 16–20 | -6.6 | -6.5 | -4.0 | 2.6 |
| 2018 | 3 | LAC @ LA | 23–35 | -5.3 | -7.5 | -12.0 | 6.7 |
| 2018 | 3 | NE @ DET | 10–26 | +4.6 | +7.0 | -16.0 | 20.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 3 | NO @ ATL | 43–37 | -2.6 | -1.5 | +6.0 | 8.6 |
| 2018 | 3 | NYG @ HOU | 27–22 | -4.9 | -6.5 | +5.0 | 9.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 3 | NYJ @ CLE | 17–21 | -2.0 | -3.0 | -4.0 | 2.0 |
| 2018 | 3 | LV @ MIA | 20–28 | -3.2 | -3.0 | -8.0 | 4.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 3 | PIT @ TB | 30–27 | -1.1 | -1.0 | +3.0 | 4.1 |
| 2018 | 3 | SF @ KC | 27–38 | -5.1 | -6.0 | -11.0 | 5.9 |
| 2018 | 3 | TEN @ JAX | 9–6 | -8.9 | -10.0 | +3.0 | 11.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 2 | ARI @ LA | 0–34 | -11.6 | -13.5 | -34.0 | 22.4 |
| 2018 | 2 | BAL @ CIN | 23–34 | -0.1 | -1.0 | -11.0 | 10.9 |
| 2018 | 2 | CAR @ ATL | 24–31 | -4.1 | -5.5 | -7.0 | 2.9 |
| 2018 | 2 | CLE @ NO | 18–21 | -7.7 | -10.0 | -3.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2018 | 2 | DET @ SF | 27–30 | -4.7 | -6.0 | -3.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |