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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 14 | TEN @ ARI | 7–12 | +1.3 | +2.5 | -5.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 14 | WAS @ LAC | 13–30 | -6.3 | -6.0 | -17.0 | 10.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 13 | CAR @ NO | 21–31 | -4.6 | -5.5 | -10.0 | 5.4 |
| 2017 | 13 | CLE @ LAC | 10–19 | -13.4 | -13.5 | -9.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| 13 |
| DEN @ MIA |
| 9–35 |
| +1.0 |
| +1.0 |
| -26.0 |
| 27.0 |
| 2017 | 13 | DET @ BAL | 20–44 | -2.9 | -2.5 | -24.0 | 21.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 13 | HOU @ TEN | 13–24 | -4.9 | -7.0 | -11.0 | 6.1 |
| 2017 | 13 | IND @ JAX | 10–30 | -8.9 | -10.0 | -20.0 | 11.1 |
| 2017 | 13 | KC @ NYJ | 31–38 | +3.4 | +3.5 | -7.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 13 | LA @ ARI | 32–16 | +3.3 | +7.5 | +16.0 | 12.7 |
| 2017 | 13 | MIN @ ATL | 14–9 | -2.8 | -2.0 | +5.0 | 7.8 |
| 2017 | 13 | NE @ BUF | 23–3 | +9.7 | +7.5 | +20.0 | 10.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 13 | NYG @ LV | 17–24 | -6.0 | -10.0 | -7.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 13 | PHI @ SEA | 10–24 | +1.9 | +3.5 | -14.0 | 15.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 13 | PIT @ CIN | 23–20 | +3.0 | +4.5 | +3.0 | 0.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 13 | SF @ CHI | 15–14 | -2.5 | -2.5 | +1.0 | 3.5 |
| 2017 | 13 | TB @ GB | 20–26 | -3.3 | -3.0 | -6.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 13 | WAS @ DAL | 14–38 | +0.2 | +1.5 | -24.0 | 24.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 12 | BUF @ KC | 16–10 | -9.5 | -8.5 | +6.0 | 15.5 |
| 2017 | 12 | CAR @ NYJ | 35–27 | +4.4 | +5.5 | +8.0 | 3.6 |
| 2017 | 12 | CHI @ PHI | 3–31 | -12.9 | -14.0 | -28.0 | 15.1 |
| 2017 | 12 | CLE @ CIN | 16–30 | -8.9 | -7.5 | -14.0 | 5.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 12 | DEN @ LV | 14–21 | -2.7 | -3.5 | -7.0 | 4.3 |
| 2017 | 12 | GB @ PIT | 28–31 | -11.0 | -14.0 | -3.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 12 | HOU @ BAL | 16–23 | -5.5 | -7.5 | -7.0 | 1.5 |
| 2017 | 12 | JAX @ ARI | 24–27 | +4.5 | +6.5 | -3.0 | 7.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 12 | LAC @ DAL | 28–6 | +0.3 | +1.0 | +22.0 | 21.7 |
| 2017 | 12 | MIA @ NE | 17–35 | -16.8 | -17.0 | -18.0 | 1.2 |
| 2017 | 12 | MIN @ DET | 30–23 | +1.8 | +2.5 | +7.0 | 5.2 |
| 2017 | 12 | NO @ LA | 20–26 | -0.4 | -2.5 | -6.0 | 5.6 |
| 2017 | 12 | NYG @ WAS | 10–20 | -5.3 | -7.0 | -10.0 | 4.7 |
| 2017 | 12 | SEA @ SF | 24–13 | +7.0 | +7.0 | +11.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 12 | TB @ ATL | 20–34 | -9.6 | -10.5 | -14.0 | 4.4 |
| 2017 | 12 | TEN @ IND | 20–16 | +2.2 | +3.0 | +4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2017 | 11 | ARI @ HOU | 21–31 | -2.2 | -2.5 | -10.0 | 7.8 |
| 2017 | 11 | ATL @ SEA | 34–31 | -1.3 | -1.0 | +3.0 | 4.3 |
| 2017 | 11 | BAL @ GB | 23–0 | +0.3 | +2.5 | +23.0 | 22.7 |
| 2017 | 11 | BUF @ LAC | 24–54 | -6.0 | -7.0 | -30.0 | 24.0 |
| 2017 | 11 | CIN @ DEN | 20–17 | -0.6 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 3.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 11 | DET @ CHI | 27–24 | +2.9 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 0.1 |
| 2017 | 11 | JAX @ CLE | 19–7 | +8.2 | +7.5 | +12.0 | 3.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 11 | KC @ NYG | 9–12 | +6.5 | +10.0 | -3.0 | 9.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 11 | LA @ MIN | 7–24 | -1.8 | -1.0 | -17.0 | 15.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 11 | NE vs LV | 33–8 | +8.2 | +7.0 | +25.0 | 16.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 11 | PHI @ DAL | 37–9 | +3.1 | +6.0 | +28.0 | 24.9 |
| 2017 | 11 | TB @ MIA | 30–20 | +1.0 | +1.0 | +10.0 | 9.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 11 | TEN @ PIT | 17–40 | -6.5 | -7.0 | -23.0 | 16.5 |
| 2017 | 11 | WAS @ NO | 31–34 | -8.8 | -9.5 | -3.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | CIN @ TEN | 20–24 | -3.2 | -4.5 | -4.0 | 0.8 |
| 2017 | 10 | CLE @ DET | 24–38 | -10.2 | -10.5 | -14.0 | 3.8 |