Loading NFL data...
Loading NFL data...
Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 10 | DAL @ ATL | 7–27 | -2.8 | -3.5 | -20.0 | 17.2 |
| 2017 | 10 | GB @ CHI | 23–16 | -1.9 | -4.5 | +7.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | HOU @ LA | 7–33 | -7.9 | -12.0 | -26.0 | 18.1 |
| 2017 | 10 | LAC @ JAX | 17–20 | -5.5 | -5.0 | -3.0 | 2.5 |
| 2017 | 10 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| MIA @ CAR |
| 21–45 |
| -7.5 |
| -8.0 |
| -24.0 |
| 16.5 |
| 2017 | 10 | MIN @ WAS | 38–30 | +0.4 | +1.0 | +8.0 | 7.6 |
| 2017 | 10 | NE @ DEN | 41–16 | +6.9 | +7.0 | +25.0 | 18.1 |
| 2017 | 10 | NO @ BUF | 47–10 | +2.2 | +2.0 | +37.0 | 34.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | NYG @ SF | 21–31 | +3.2 | +3.0 | -10.0 | 13.2 |
| 2017 | 10 | NYJ @ TB | 10–15 | -1.6 | -1.0 | -5.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | PIT @ IND | 20–17 | +8.4 | +10.5 | +3.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 10 | SEA @ ARI | 22–16 | +4.4 | +6.0 | +6.0 | 1.6 |
| 2017 | 9 | ARI @ SF | 20–10 | +3.2 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 6.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 9 | ATL @ CAR | 17–20 | +2.0 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 9 | BAL @ TEN | 20–23 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.1 |
| 2017 | 9 | BUF @ NYJ | 21–34 | +2.9 | +3.0 | -13.0 | 15.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 9 | CIN @ JAX | 7–23 | -5.4 | -6.0 | -16.0 | 10.6 |
| 2017 | 9 | DEN @ PHI | 23–51 | -6.2 | -7.0 | -28.0 | 21.8 |
| 2017 | 9 | DET @ GB | 30–17 | -1.0 | +2.5 | +13.0 | 14.0 |
| 2017 | 9 | IND @ HOU | 20–14 | -7.2 | -6.0 | +6.0 | 13.2 |
| 2017 | 9 | KC @ DAL | 17–28 | -1.5 | -2.0 | -11.0 | 9.5 |
| 2017 | 9 | LA @ NYG | 51–17 | +1.6 | +5.5 | +34.0 | 32.4 |
| 2017 | 9 | LV @ MIA | 27–24 | +2.1 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 0.9 |
| 2017 | 9 | TB @ NO | 10–30 | -6.0 | -7.0 | -20.0 | 14.0 |
| 2017 | 9 | WAS @ SEA | 17–14 | -7.1 | -8.0 | +3.0 | 10.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | ATL @ NYJ | 25–20 | +6.1 | +6.5 | +5.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | CAR @ TB | 17–3 | -1.9 | -1.5 | +14.0 | 15.9 |
| 2017 | 8 | CHI @ NO | 12–20 | -8.3 | -7.5 | -8.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | DAL @ WAS | 33–19 | +1.6 | +3.0 | +14.0 | 12.4 |
| 2017 | 8 | DEN @ KC | 19–29 | -6.3 | -7.0 | -10.0 | 3.7 |
| 2017 | 8 | HOU @ SEA | 38–41 | -5.3 | -6.0 | -3.0 | 2.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | IND @ CIN | 23–24 | -9.8 | -11.0 | -1.0 | 8.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | LAC @ NE | 13–21 | -7.9 | -6.5 | -8.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | MIA @ BAL | 0–40 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -40.0 | 37.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | MIN vs CLE | 33–16 | +10.3 | +11.0 | +17.0 | 6.7 |
| 2017 | 8 | LV @ BUF | 14–34 | -2.3 | -2.5 | -20.0 | 17.7 |
| 2017 | 8 | PIT @ DET | 20–15 | +3.9 | +3.0 | +5.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 8 | SF @ PHI | 10–33 | -11.5 | -13.0 | -23.0 | 11.5 |
| 2017 | 7 | ARI vs LA | 0–33 | -0.6 | -3.0 | -33.0 | 32.4 |
| 2017 | 7 | ATL @ NE | 7–23 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -16.0 | 13.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 7 | BAL @ MIN | 16–24 | -4.8 | -5.0 | -8.0 | 3.2 |
| 2017 | 7 | CAR @ CHI | 3–17 | +3.3 | +2.5 | -14.0 | 17.3 |
| 2017 | 7 | CIN @ PIT | 14–29 | -4.1 | -4.0 | -15.0 | 10.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 7 | DAL @ SF | 40–10 | +5.1 | +6.5 | +30.0 | 24.9 |
| 2017 | 7 | DEN @ LAC | 0–21 | +0.3 | +1.0 | -21.0 | 21.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 7 | JAX @ IND | 27–0 | +3.4 | +3.0 | +27.0 | 23.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 7 | KC @ LV | 30–31 | +3.1 | +3.0 | -1.0 | 4.1 |
| 2017 | 7 | NO @ GB | 26–17 | +2.3 | +3.5 | +9.0 | 6.7 |
| 2017 | 7 | NYJ @ MIA | 28–31 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.3 |
| 2017 | 7 | SEA @ NYG | 24–7 | +2.4 | +4.0 | +17.0 | 14.6 |