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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19 | SEA @ ATL | 20–36 | -3.3 | -6.5 | -16.0 | 12.7 |
| 2016 | 18 | DET @ SEA | 6–26 | -8.7 | -8.0 | -20.0 | 11.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 18 | MIA @ PIT | 12–30 | -9.9 | -11.0 | -18.0 | 8.1 |
| 2016 | 18 | NYG @ GB | 13–38 | -5.5 | -5.0 | -25.0 | 19.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 18 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| LV @ HOU |
| 14–27 |
| -3.4 |
| -4.0 |
| -13.0 |
| 9.6 |
| 2016 | 17 | ARI @ LA | 44–6 | +6.7 | +7.0 | +38.0 | 31.3 |
| 2016 | 17 | BAL @ CIN | 10–27 | -0.5 | +2.5 | -17.0 | 16.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 17 | BUF @ NYJ | 10–30 | +3.3 | +3.5 | -20.0 | 23.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 17 | CAR @ TB | 16–17 | -1.0 | -3.5 | -1.0 | 0.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 17 | CHI @ MIN | 10–38 | -5.1 | -6.0 | -28.0 | 22.9 |
| 2016 | 17 | CLE @ PIT | 24–27 | -11.1 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 8.1 |
| 2016 | 17 | DAL @ PHI | 13–27 | -0.7 | -6.5 | -14.0 | 13.3 |
| 2016 | 17 | GB @ DET | 31–24 | +4.3 | +3.5 | +7.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 17 | HOU @ TEN | 17–24 | -1.2 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 5.8 |
| 2016 | 17 | JAX @ IND | 20–24 | -5.7 | -5.5 | -4.0 | 1.7 |
| 2016 | 17 | KC @ LAC | 37–27 | +4.5 | +5.5 | +10.0 | 5.5 |
| 2016 | 17 | NE @ MIA | 35–14 | +7.7 | +7.5 | +21.0 | 13.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 17 | NO @ ATL | 32–38 | -7.2 | -7.5 | -6.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 17 | NYG @ WAS | 19–10 | -7.0 | -10.0 | +9.0 | 16.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 17 | LV @ DEN | 6–24 | -2.0 | -1.0 | -18.0 | 16.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 17 | SEA @ SF | 25–23 | +11.2 | +11.5 | +2.0 | 9.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 16 | ARI @ SEA | 34–31 | -7.7 | -9.0 | +3.0 | 10.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 16 | ATL @ CAR | 33–16 | +0.2 | +3.0 | +17.0 | 16.8 |
| 2016 | 16 | BAL @ PIT | 27–31 | -6.3 | -5.5 | -4.0 | 2.3 |
| 2016 | 16 | CIN @ HOU | 10–12 | -0.3 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 1.7 |
| 2016 | 16 | DEN @ KC | 10–33 | -2.9 | -3.5 | -23.0 | 20.1 |
| 2016 | 16 | DET @ DAL | 21–42 | -6.3 | -6.5 | -21.0 | 14.7 |
| 2016 | 16 | IND @ LV | 25–33 | -2.1 | -3.5 | -8.0 | 5.9 |
| 2016 | 16 | MIA @ BUF | 34–31 | -4.0 | -4.5 | +3.0 | 7.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 16 | MIN @ GB | 25–38 | -6.7 | -6.0 | -13.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 16 | NYG @ PHI | 19–24 | +0.0 | -2.0 | -5.0 | 5.0 |
| 2016 | 16 | NYJ @ NE | 3–41 | -14.7 | -17.0 | -38.0 | 23.3 |
| 2016 | 16 | LAC @ CLE | 17–20 | +6.6 | +4.5 | -3.0 | 9.6 |
| 2016 | 16 | SF @ LA | 22–21 | -4.7 | -6.0 | +1.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 16 | TB @ NO | 24–31 | -2.1 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 4.9 |
| 2016 | 16 | TEN @ JAX | 17–38 | +3.3 | +4.0 | -21.0 | 24.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 16 | WAS @ CHI | 41–21 | +2.3 | +3.0 | +20.0 | 17.7 |
| 2016 | 15 | CAR @ WAS | 26–15 | -3.7 | -7.0 | +11.0 | 14.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 15 | CLE @ BUF | 13–33 | -11.6 | -10.5 | -20.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 15 | DET @ NYG | 6–17 | -3.2 | -4.0 | -11.0 | 7.8 |
| 2016 | 15 | GB @ CHI | 30–27 | +4.3 | +4.5 | +3.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 15 | IND @ MIN | 34–6 | -4.4 | -5.0 | +28.0 | 32.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 15 | JAX @ HOU | 20–21 | -4.8 | -3.5 | -1.0 | 3.8 |
| 2016 | 15 | LA @ SEA | 3–24 | -13.2 | -15.0 | -21.0 | 7.8 |
| 2016 | 15 | MIA @ NYJ | 34–13 | -0.4 | +2.5 | +21.0 | 21.4 |
| 2016 | 15 | NE @ DEN | 16–3 | +2.6 | +3.0 | +13.0 | 10.4 |
| 2016 | 15 | NO @ ARI | 48–41 | -3.6 | -3.0 | +7.0 | 10.6 |
| 2016 | 15 | LV @ LAC | 19–16 | +1.6 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 1.4 |
| 2016 | 15 | PHI @ BAL | 26–27 | -6.3 | -5.0 | -1.0 | 5.3 |
| 2016 | 15 | PIT @ CIN | 24–20 | +1.9 | +3.0 | +4.0 | 2.1 |