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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 15 | SF @ ATL | 13–41 | -12.8 | -13.5 | -28.0 | 15.2 |
| 2016 | 15 | TB @ DAL | 20–26 | -6.2 | -7.0 | -6.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 15 | TEN @ KC | 19–17 | -6.1 | -6.0 | +2.0 | 8.1 |
| 2016 | 14 | ARI @ MIA | 23–26 | +2.5 | +2.0 | -3.0 | 5.5 |
| 2016 | 14 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| 42–14 |
| +4.3 |
| +4.5 |
| +28.0 |
| 23.7 |
| 2016 | 14 | BAL @ NE | 23–30 | -6.5 | -6.0 | -7.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 14 | CHI @ DET | 17–20 | -5.9 | -7.5 | -3.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 14 | CIN @ CLE | 23–10 | +7.7 | +4.0 | +13.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 14 | DAL @ NYG | 7–10 | +2.8 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 14 | DEN @ TEN | 10–13 | -0.1 | -2.0 | -3.0 | 2.9 |
| 2016 | 14 | HOU @ IND | 22–17 | -4.5 | -6.5 | +5.0 | 9.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 14 | MIN @ JAX | 25–16 | +3.7 | +3.0 | +9.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 14 | NO @ TB | 11–16 | -2.4 | -2.0 | -5.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 14 | NYJ @ SF | 23–17 | +0.5 | -3.0 | +6.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 14 | LV @ KC | 13–21 | -3.3 | -3.5 | -8.0 | 4.7 |
| 2016 | 14 | PIT @ BUF | 27–20 | +2.6 | +1.0 | +7.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 14 | LAC @ CAR | 16–28 | -2.5 | -1.0 | -12.0 | 9.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 14 | SEA @ GB | 10–38 | +2.7 | +3.0 | -28.0 | 30.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 14 | WAS @ PHI | 27–22 | +2.2 | +1.5 | +5.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 13 | BUF @ LV | 24–38 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 11.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 13 | CAR @ SEA | 7–40 | -5.5 | -8.5 | -33.0 | 27.5 |
| 2016 | 13 | DAL @ MIN | 17–15 | +2.2 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 13 | DEN @ JAX | 20–10 | +4.8 | +3.5 | +10.0 | 5.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 13 | DET @ NO | 28–13 | -5.4 | -6.5 | +15.0 | 20.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 13 | HOU @ GB | 13–21 | -6.0 | -7.0 | -8.0 | 2.0 |
| 2016 | 13 | IND @ NYJ | 41–10 | -2.9 | -1.0 | +31.0 | 33.9 |
| 2016 | 13 | KC @ ATL | 29–28 | -3.7 | -5.0 | +1.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 13 | LA @ NE | 10–26 | -11.9 | -13.0 | -16.0 | 4.1 |
| 2016 | 13 | MIA @ BAL | 6–38 | -2.7 | -3.5 | -32.0 | 29.3 |
| 2016 | 13 | NYG @ PIT | 14–24 | -7.2 | -7.0 | -10.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 13 | PHI @ CIN | 14–32 | -2.7 | -1.0 | -18.0 | 15.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 13 | SF @ CHI | 6–26 | -1.9 | 0.0 | -20.0 | 18.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 13 | TB @ LAC | 28–21 | -3.2 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 10.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 13 | WAS @ ARI | 23–31 | -1.6 | -2.5 | -8.0 | 6.4 |
| 2016 | 12 | ARI @ ATL | 19–38 | -3.0 | -3.5 | -19.0 | 16.0 |
| 2016 | 12 | CAR @ LV | 32–35 | -1.5 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 1.5 |
| 2016 | 12 | CIN @ BAL | 14–19 | -1.9 | -3.5 | -5.0 | 3.1 |
| 2016 | 12 | GB @ PHI | 27–13 | -2.5 | -4.0 | +14.0 | 16.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 12 | JAX @ BUF | 21–28 | -8.6 | -8.5 | -7.0 | 1.6 |
| 2016 | 12 | KC @ DEN | 30–27 | -2.6 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 12 | LA @ NO | 21–49 | -5.5 | -7.5 | -28.0 | 22.5 |
| 2016 | 12 | MIN @ DET | 13–16 | -0.3 | -2.0 | -3.0 | 2.7 |
| 2016 | 12 | NE @ NYJ | 22–17 | +7.5 | +9.0 | +5.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 12 | NYG @ CLE | 27–13 | +7.4 | +6.5 | +14.0 | 6.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 12 | PIT @ IND | 28–7 | +6.3 | +8.0 | +21.0 | 14.7 |
| 2016 | 12 | LAC @ HOU | 21–13 | +0.7 | +2.5 | +8.0 | 7.3 |
| 2016 | 12 | SEA @ TB | 5–14 | +5.7 | +5.0 | -9.0 | 14.7 |
| 2016 | 12 | SF @ MIA | 24–31 | -7.4 | -7.0 | -7.0 | 0.4 |
| 2016 | 12 | TEN @ CHI | 27–21 | +4.0 | +6.5 | +6.0 | 2.0 |
| 2016 | 12 | WAS @ DAL | 26–31 | -5.4 | -5.5 | -5.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |