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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 11 | ARI @ MIN | 24–30 | -1.6 | -2.0 | -6.0 | 4.4 |
| 2016 | 11 | BAL @ DAL | 17–27 | -7.1 | -7.0 | -10.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 11 | BUF @ CIN | 16–12 | -2.6 | -2.5 | +4.0 | 6.6 |
| 2016 | 11 | CHI @ NYG | 16–22 | -6.1 | -7.0 | -6.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 11 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| GB @ WAS |
| 24–42 |
| -1.9 |
| -2.5 |
| -18.0 |
| 16.1 |
| 2016 | 11 | HOU vs LV | 20–27 | -4.6 | -6.5 | -7.0 | 2.4 |
| 2016 | 11 | JAX @ DET | 19–26 | -5.8 | -5.5 | -7.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 11 | MIA @ LA | 14–10 | -1.3 | -1.0 | +4.0 | 5.3 |
| 2016 | 11 | NE @ SF | 30–17 | +11.2 | +10.5 | +13.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 11 | NO @ CAR | 20–23 | -4.8 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 1.8 |
| 2016 | 11 | PHI @ SEA | 15–26 | -6.9 | -6.5 | -11.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 11 | PIT @ CLE | 24–9 | +9.1 | +8.0 | +15.0 | 5.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 11 | TB @ KC | 19–17 | -7.3 | -7.0 | +2.0 | 9.3 |
| 2016 | 11 | TEN @ IND | 17–24 | -2.0 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 5.0 |
| 2016 | 10 | ATL @ PHI | 15–24 | -0.1 | -2.0 | -9.0 | 8.9 |
| 2016 | 10 | CHI @ TB | 10–36 | +1.5 | +2.5 | -26.0 | 27.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 10 | CIN @ NYG | 20–21 | +0.4 | +1.0 | -1.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 10 | CLE @ BAL | 7–28 | -8.5 | -7.5 | -21.0 | 12.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 10 | DAL @ PIT | 35–30 | -1.6 | -3.0 | +5.0 | 6.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 10 | DEN @ NO | 25–23 | -1.1 | -3.0 | +2.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 10 | GB @ TEN | 25–47 | +3.4 | +3.0 | -22.0 | 25.4 |
| 2016 | 10 | HOU @ JAX | 24–21 | -0.2 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 10 | KC @ CAR | 20–17 | -3.8 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 6.8 |
| 2016 | 10 | LA @ NYJ | 9–6 | -0.9 | +1.0 | +3.0 | 3.9 |
| 2016 | 10 | MIA @ LAC | 31–24 | -4.9 | -4.0 | +7.0 | 11.9 |
| 2016 | 10 | MIN @ WAS | 20–26 | -1.6 | -2.5 | -6.0 | 4.4 |
| 2016 | 10 | SEA @ NE | 31–24 | -6.3 | -7.5 | +7.0 | 13.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 10 | SF @ ARI | 20–23 | -13.3 | -14.0 | -3.0 | 10.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 9 | ATL @ TB | 43–28 | +4.0 | +4.5 | +15.0 | 11.0 |
| 2016 | 9 | BUF @ SEA | 25–31 | -6.3 | -5.5 | -6.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 9 | CAR @ LA | 13–10 | +3.5 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 0.5 |
| 2016 | 9 | DAL @ CLE | 35–10 | +8.5 | +7.0 | +25.0 | 16.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 9 | DEN @ LV | 20–30 | -0.3 | -1.0 | -10.0 | 9.7 |
| 2016 | 9 | DET @ MIN | 22–16 | -4.9 | -4.0 | +6.0 | 10.9 |
| 2016 | 9 | IND @ GB | 31–26 | -7.6 | -7.5 | +5.0 | 12.6 |
| 2016 | 9 | JAX @ KC | 14–19 | -8.5 | -7.0 | -5.0 | 3.5 |
| 2016 | 9 | NO @ SF | 41–23 | +4.5 | +5.0 | +18.0 | 13.5 |
| 2016 | 9 | NYJ @ MIA | 23–27 | -1.9 | -3.5 | -4.0 | 2.1 |
| 2016 | 9 | PHI @ NYG | 23–28 | -2.1 | -3.0 | -5.0 | 2.9 |
| 2016 | 9 | PIT @ BAL | 14–21 | +3.0 | +3.5 | -7.0 | 10.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 9 | TEN @ LAC | 35–43 | -4.0 | -3.5 | -8.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 8 | ARI @ CAR | 20–30 | -1.1 | -2.5 | -10.0 | 8.9 |
| 2016 | 8 | DET @ HOU | 13–20 | -1.8 | -1.0 | -7.0 | 5.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 8 | GB @ ATL | 32–33 | -2.5 | -3.0 | -1.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 8 | JAX @ TEN | 22–36 | -2.5 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 11.5 |
| 2016 | 8 | KC @ IND | 30–14 | +2.2 | +3.0 | +16.0 | 13.8 |
| 2016 | 8 | MIN @ CHI | 10–20 | +5.4 | +5.5 | -10.0 | 15.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 8 | NE @ BUF | 41–25 | +4.2 | +5.5 | +16.0 | 11.8 |
| 2016 | 8 | NYJ @ CLE | 31–28 | +4.3 | +2.5 | +3.0 | 1.3 |
| 2016 | 8 | LV @ TB | 30–24 | -0.1 | -1.0 | +6.0 | 6.1 (model closer than the closing line) |