Loading NFL data...
Loading NFL data...
Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 8 | PHI @ DAL | 23–29 | -5.3 | -5.0 | -6.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 8 | LAC @ DEN | 19–27 | -3.8 | -3.5 | -8.0 | 4.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 8 | SEA @ NO | 20–25 | +3.3 | +1.0 | -5.0 | 8.3 |
| 2016 | 8 | WAS vs CIN | 27–27 | -2.3 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| 7 |
| BAL @ NYJ |
| 16–24 |
| -1.8 |
| -2.0 |
| -8.0 |
| 6.2 |
| 2016 | 7 | BUF @ MIA | 25–28 | +3.3 | +2.5 | -3.0 | 6.3 |
| 2016 | 7 | CHI @ GB | 10–26 | -7.5 | -7.5 | -16.0 | 8.5 |
| 2016 | 7 | CLE @ CIN | 17–31 | -10.8 | -11.5 | -14.0 | 3.2 |
| 2016 | 7 | HOU @ DEN | 9–27 | -7.0 | -8.5 | -18.0 | 11.0 |
| 2016 | 7 | IND @ TEN | 34–26 | -2.2 | -4.0 | +8.0 | 10.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 7 | MIN @ PHI | 10–21 | +2.7 | +2.5 | -11.0 | 13.7 |
| 2016 | 7 | NE @ PIT | 27–16 | +5.4 | +7.5 | +11.0 | 5.6 |
| 2016 | 7 | NO @ KC | 21–27 | -6.0 | -6.0 | -6.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 7 | NYG vs LA | 17–10 | +1.9 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 5.1 |
| 2016 | 7 | LV @ JAX | 33–16 | -0.4 | -1.5 | +17.0 | 17.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 7 | LAC @ ATL | 33–30 | -4.8 | -4.5 | +3.0 | 7.8 |
| 2016 | 7 | SEA @ ARI | 6–6 | -1.4 | -2.5 | 0.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 7 | TB @ SF | 34–17 | -0.3 | -1.0 | +17.0 | 17.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 7 | WAS @ DET | 17–20 | +1.1 | +1.0 | -3.0 | 4.1 |
| 2016 | 6 | ATL @ SEA | 24–26 | -5.3 | -7.0 | -2.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 6 | BAL @ NYG | 23–27 | -2.9 | -3.5 | -4.0 | 1.1 |
| 2016 | 6 | CAR @ NO | 38–41 | +2.6 | +2.5 | -3.0 | 5.6 |
| 2016 | 6 | CIN @ NE | 17–35 | -7.3 | -7.5 | -18.0 | 10.7 |
| 2016 | 6 | CLE @ TEN | 26–28 | -6.6 | -7.5 | -2.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 6 | DAL @ GB | 30–16 | -3.9 | -5.0 | +14.0 | 17.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 6 | DEN @ LAC | 13–21 | +2.0 | +3.0 | -8.0 | 10.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 6 | IND @ HOU | 23–26 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 6 | JAX @ CHI | 17–16 | -2.2 | -2.5 | +1.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 6 | KC @ LV | 26–10 | -0.7 | +1.0 | +16.0 | 16.7 |
| 2016 | 6 | LA @ DET | 28–31 | -1.5 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 1.5 |
| 2016 | 6 | NYJ @ ARI | 3–28 | -6.0 | -7.5 | -25.0 | 19.0 |
| 2016 | 6 | PHI @ WAS | 20–27 | +1.4 | +3.0 | -7.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 6 | PIT @ MIA | 15–30 | +8.8 | +7.5 | -15.0 | 23.8 |
| 2016 | 6 | SF @ BUF | 16–45 | -9.4 | -7.5 | -29.0 | 19.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 5 | ARI @ SF | 33–21 | +3.8 | +3.5 | +12.0 | 8.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 5 | ATL @ DEN | 23–16 | -3.4 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 5 | BUF @ LA | 30–19 | +2.1 | +2.5 | +11.0 | 8.9 |
| 2016 | 5 | CHI @ IND | 23–29 | -4.1 | -4.0 | -6.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 5 | CIN @ DAL | 14–28 | +0.9 | +2.5 | -14.0 | 14.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 5 | HOU @ MIN | 13–31 | -6.0 | -6.0 | -18.0 | 12.0 |
| 2016 | 5 | NE @ CLE | 33–13 | +9.3 | +10.0 | +20.0 | 10.7 |
| 2016 | 5 | NYG @ GB | 16–23 | -7.1 | -7.0 | -7.0 | 0.1 |
| 2016 | 5 | NYJ @ PIT | 13–31 | -9.8 | -10.0 | -18.0 | 8.2 |
| 2016 | 5 | PHI @ DET | 23–24 | +2.7 | +3.5 | -1.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 5 | LAC @ LV | 31–34 | -3.0 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 0.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 5 | TB @ CAR | 17–14 | -7.1 | -6.0 | +3.0 | 10.1 |
| 2016 | 5 | TEN @ MIA | 30–17 | -2.9 | -2.5 | +13.0 | 15.9 |
| 2016 | 5 | WAS @ BAL | 16–10 | -3.2 | -4.0 | +6.0 | 9.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 4 | BUF @ NE | 16–0 | -4.9 | -3.5 | +16.0 | 20.9 |
| 2016 | 4 | CAR @ ATL | 33–48 | +3.0 | +2.5 | -15.0 | 18.0 |