Loading NFL data...
Loading NFL data...
Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 4 | CLE @ WAS | 20–31 | -6.8 | -7.5 | -11.0 | 4.2 |
| 2016 | 4 | DAL @ SF | 24–17 | +3.1 | +1.0 | +7.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 4 | DEN @ TB | 27–7 | +4.6 | +3.5 | +20.0 | 15.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 4 | DET @ CHI | 14–17 | +2.0 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| 4 |
| IND vs JAX |
| 27–30 |
| +1.3 |
| -1.0 |
| -3.0 |
| 4.3 |
| 2016 | 4 | KC @ PIT | 14–43 | -2.8 | -3.0 | -29.0 | 26.2 |
| 2016 | 4 | LA @ ARI | 17–13 | -8.7 | -10.0 | +4.0 | 12.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 4 | MIA @ CIN | 7–22 | -7.6 | -7.5 | -15.0 | 7.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 4 | NO @ LAC | 35–34 | -5.6 | -4.0 | +1.0 | 6.6 |
| 2016 | 4 | NYG @ MIN | 10–24 | -5.1 | -3.5 | -14.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 4 | LV @ BAL | 28–27 | -2.2 | -3.5 | +1.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 4 | SEA @ NYJ | 27–17 | +2.3 | +1.0 | +10.0 | 7.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 4 | TEN @ HOU | 20–27 | -6.1 | -4.0 | -7.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | ARI @ BUF | 18–33 | +5.5 | +5.0 | -15.0 | 20.5 |
| 2016 | 3 | ATL @ NO | 45–32 | -2.6 | -2.5 | +13.0 | 15.6 |
| 2016 | 3 | BAL @ JAX | 19–17 | +1.6 | +1.0 | +2.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | CHI @ DAL | 17–31 | -5.6 | -6.5 | -14.0 | 8.4 |
| 2016 | 3 | CLE @ MIA | 24–30 | -8.1 | -10.0 | -6.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | DEN @ CIN | 29–17 | -2.4 | -3.5 | +12.0 | 14.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | DET @ GB | 27–34 | -6.2 | -6.0 | -7.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | HOU @ NE | 0–27 | -2.8 | -1.0 | -27.0 | 24.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | LA @ TB | 37–32 | -1.5 | -3.5 | +5.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | MIN @ CAR | 22–10 | -5.8 | -6.0 | +12.0 | 17.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | NYJ @ KC | 3–24 | -2.5 | -3.0 | -21.0 | 18.5 |
| 2016 | 3 | LV @ TEN | 17–10 | +2.3 | +1.5 | +7.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 3 | PIT @ PHI | 3–34 | +4.2 | +3.5 | -31.0 | 35.2 |
| 2016 | 3 | LAC @ IND | 22–26 | -0.3 | -1.5 | -4.0 | 3.7 |
| 2016 | 3 | SF @ SEA | 18–37 | -10.0 | -10.5 | -19.0 | 9.0 |
| 2016 | 3 | WAS @ NYG | 29–27 | -3.6 | -3.5 | +2.0 | 5.6 |
| 2016 | 2 | ATL @ LV | 35–28 | -5.0 | -4.0 | +7.0 | 12.0 |
| 2016 | 2 | BAL @ CLE | 25–20 | +4.6 | +4.0 | +5.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 2 | CIN @ PIT | 16–24 | -3.7 | -3.0 | -8.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 2 | DAL @ WAS | 27–23 | -2.4 | -3.5 | +4.0 | 6.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 2 | GB @ MIN | 14–17 | +0.4 | +1.5 | -3.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 2 | IND @ DEN | 20–34 | -4.9 | -5.0 | -14.0 | 9.1 |
| 2016 | 2 | JAX @ LAC | 14–38 | -3.7 | -3.0 | -24.0 | 20.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 2 | KC @ HOU | 12–19 | +0.2 | +1.0 | -7.0 | 7.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 2 | MIA @ NE | 24–31 | -6.6 | -5.5 | -7.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 2 | NO @ NYG | 13–16 | -3.6 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 0.6 |
| 2016 | 2 | NYJ @ BUF | 37–31 | -1.0 | -1.5 | +6.0 | 7.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 2 | PHI @ CHI | 29–14 | -2.4 | -3.0 | +15.0 | 17.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 2 | SEA @ LA | 3–9 | +5.4 | +5.5 | -6.0 | 11.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 2 | SF @ CAR | 27–46 | -11.5 | -12.0 | -19.0 | 7.5 |
| 2016 | 2 | TB @ ARI | 7–40 | -7.0 | -7.5 | -33.0 | 26.0 |
| 2016 | 2 | TEN @ DET | 16–15 | -6.8 | -6.0 | +1.0 | 7.8 |
| 2016 | 1 | BUF @ BAL | 7–13 | -2.4 | -3.0 | -6.0 | 3.6 |
| 2016 | 1 | CAR @ DEN | 20–21 | +2.5 | +3.0 | -1.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 1 | CHI @ HOU | 14–23 | -4.6 | -5.5 | -9.0 | 4.4 |
| 2016 | 1 | CIN @ NYJ | 23–22 | -0.7 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2016 | 1 | CLE @ PHI | 10–29 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -19.0 | 14.5 (model closer than the closing line) |