NFL Forecast History

2761 completed games

Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.

Pick history

NFL backtest forecast history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2016	1	DET @ IND	39–35	-2.7	-2.5	+4.0	6.7
2016	1	GB @ JAX	27–23	+3.9	+3.5	+4.0	0.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2016	1	LA @ SF	0–28	+2.7	+2.5	-28.0	30.7
2016	1	MIA @ SEA	10–12	-10.1	-10.5	-2.0	8.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2016	1

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.