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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 15 | CIN @ TEN | 37–27 | +6.0 | +6.0 | +10.0 | 4.0 |
| 2024 | 15 | DAL @ CAR | 30–14 | -0.2 | -2.5 | +16.0 | 16.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 15 | GB @ SEA | 30–13 | +3.2 | +3.0 | +17.0 | 13.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 15 | IND @ DEN | 13–31 | -3.9 | -4.5 | -18.0 | 14.1 |
| 2024 | 15 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| KC @ CLE |
| 21–7 |
| +4.4 |
| +4.5 |
| +14.0 |
| 9.6 |
| 2024 | 15 | LA @ SF | 12–6 | -4.9 | -3.0 | +6.0 | 10.9 |
| 2024 | 15 | MIA @ HOU | 12–20 | -2.0 | -2.5 | -8.0 | 6.0 |
| 2024 | 15 | NE @ ARI | 17–30 | -7.0 | -6.0 | -13.0 | 6.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 15 | NYJ @ JAX | 32–25 | +1.8 | +3.5 | +7.0 | 5.2 |
| 2024 | 15 | PIT @ PHI | 13–27 | -5.0 | -5.5 | -14.0 | 9.0 |
| 2024 | 15 | TB @ LAC | 40–17 | -2.7 | -3.0 | +23.0 | 25.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 15 | WAS @ NO | 20–19 | +4.4 | +7.5 | +1.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | ATL @ MIN | 21–42 | -4.7 | -6.0 | -21.0 | 16.3 |
| 2024 | 14 | BUF @ LA | 42–44 | +4.3 | +3.5 | -2.0 | 6.3 |
| 2024 | 14 | CAR @ PHI | 16–22 | -14.0 | -14.0 | -6.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | CHI @ SF | 13–38 | -4.1 | -3.0 | -25.0 | 20.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | CIN @ DAL | 27–20 | +3.6 | +5.0 | +7.0 | 3.4 |
| 2024 | 14 | CLE @ PIT | 14–27 | -5.9 | -6.0 | -13.0 | 7.1 |
| 2024 | 14 | GB @ DET | 31–34 | -4.1 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2024 | 14 | JAX @ TEN | 10–6 | -1.7 | -3.0 | +4.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | LAC @ KC | 17–19 | -4.5 | -5.0 | -2.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | LV @ TB | 13–28 | -7.2 | -7.0 | -15.0 | 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | NO @ NYG | 14–11 | +5.0 | +5.5 | +3.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | NYJ @ MIA | 26–32 | -6.6 | -6.5 | -6.0 | 0.6 |
| 2024 | 14 | SEA @ ARI | 30–18 | -3.1 | -3.0 | +12.0 | 15.1 |
| 2024 | 13 | ARI @ MIN | 22–23 | -3.1 | -3.5 | -1.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | CHI @ DET | 20–23 | -10.5 | -9.5 | -3.0 | 7.5 |
| 2024 | 13 | CLE @ DEN | 32–41 | -5.6 | -6.5 | -9.0 | 3.4 |
| 2024 | 13 | HOU @ JAX | 23–20 | +4.7 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 1.7 |
| 2024 | 13 | IND @ NE | 25–24 | +3.7 | +2.5 | +1.0 | 2.7 |
| 2024 | 13 | LA @ NO | 21–14 | -0.2 | +2.5 | +7.0 | 7.2 |
| 2024 | 13 | LAC @ ATL | 17–13 | +1.2 | +1.0 | +4.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | LV @ KC | 17–19 | -12.6 | -13.5 | -2.0 | 10.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | MIA @ GB | 17–30 | -3.3 | -3.5 | -13.0 | 9.7 |
| 2024 | 13 | NYG @ DAL | 20–27 | -5.2 | -4.5 | -7.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | PHI @ BAL | 24–19 | -3.7 | -3.0 | +5.0 | 8.7 |
| 2024 | 13 | PIT @ CIN | 44–38 | -3.2 | -3.0 | +6.0 | 9.2 |
| 2024 | 13 | SEA @ NYJ | 26–21 | -1.5 | -1.0 | +5.0 | 6.5 |
| 2024 | 13 | SF @ BUF | 10–35 | -5.9 | -6.5 | -25.0 | 19.1 |
| 2024 | 13 | TB @ CAR | 26–23 | +7.5 | +6.5 | +3.0 | 4.5 |
| 2024 | 13 | TEN @ WAS | 19–42 | -5.0 | -6.0 | -23.0 | 18.0 |
| 2024 | 12 | ARI @ SEA | 6–16 | +1.0 | +1.0 | -10.0 | 11.0 |
| 2024 | 12 | BAL @ LAC | 30–23 | +2.5 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 4.5 |
| 2024 | 12 | DAL @ WAS | 34–26 | -8.0 | -10.5 | +8.0 | 16.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | DEN @ LV | 29–19 | +5.0 | +6.5 | +10.0 | 5.0 |
| 2024 | 12 | DET @ IND | 24–6 | +7.5 | +7.0 | +18.0 | 10.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | KC @ CAR | 30–27 | +11.4 | +11.0 | +3.0 | 8.4 |
| 2024 | 12 | MIN @ CHI | 30–27 | +1.4 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 1.6 |
| 2024 | 12 | NE @ MIA | 15–34 | -8.9 | -7.5 | -19.0 | 10.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | PHI @ LA | 37–20 | +2.3 | +3.0 | +17.0 | 14.7 |