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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12 | PIT @ CLE | 19–24 | +2.7 | +3.5 | -5.0 | 7.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | SF @ GB | 10–38 | -4.9 | -6.5 | -28.0 | 23.1 |
| 2024 | 12 | TB @ NYG | 30–7 | +4.4 | +6.5 | +23.0 | 18.6 |
| 2024 | 12 | TEN @ HOU | 32–27 | -8.0 | -8.0 | +5.0 | 13.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| ATL @ DEN |
| 6–38 |
| -0.8 |
| -2.0 |
| -32.0 |
| 31.2 |
| 2024 | 11 | BAL @ PIT | 16–18 | +3.6 | +3.0 | -2.0 | 5.6 |
| 2024 | 11 | CIN @ LAC | 27–34 | -1.6 | -1.0 | -7.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | CLE @ NO | 14–35 | -1.4 | +1.0 | -21.0 | 19.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | GB @ CHI | 20–19 | +4.2 | +6.0 | +1.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | HOU @ DAL | 34–10 | +5.8 | +7.5 | +24.0 | 18.2 |
| 2024 | 11 | IND @ NYJ | 28–27 | -2.3 | -4.0 | +1.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | JAX @ DET | 6–52 | -13.7 | -14.0 | -46.0 | 32.3 |
| 2024 | 11 | KC @ BUF | 21–30 | -2.7 | -2.5 | -9.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | LA @ NE | 28–22 | +4.5 | +4.0 | +6.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | LV @ MIA | 19–34 | -7.8 | -8.0 | -15.0 | 7.2 |
| 2024 | 11 | MIN @ TEN | 23–13 | +4.8 | +6.0 | +10.0 | 5.2 |
| 2024 | 11 | SEA @ SF | 20–17 | -8.2 | -6.0 | +3.0 | 11.2 |
| 2024 | 11 | WAS @ PHI | 18–26 | -4.4 | -4.5 | -8.0 | 3.6 |
| 2024 | 10 | ATL @ NO | 17–20 | +1.1 | +3.5 | -3.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | BUF @ IND | 30–20 | +4.4 | +4.5 | +10.0 | 5.6 |
| 2024 | 10 | CIN @ BAL | 34–35 | -6.3 | -6.0 | -1.0 | 5.3 |
| 2024 | 10 | DEN @ KC | 14–16 | -8.5 | -7.5 | -2.0 | 6.5 |
| 2024 | 10 | DET @ HOU | 26–23 | +4.3 | +4.5 | +3.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | MIA @ LA | 23–15 | -2.0 | -2.5 | +8.0 | 10.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | MIN @ JAX | 12–7 | +4.9 | +7.0 | +5.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | NE @ CHI | 19–3 | -8.5 | -6.5 | +16.0 | 24.5 |
| 2024 | 10 | NYG vs CAR | 17–20 | +6.1 | +6.5 | -3.0 | 9.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | NYJ @ ARI | 6–31 | +0.9 | +2.0 | -25.0 | 25.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | PHI @ DAL | 34–6 | +5.8 | +7.5 | +28.0 | 22.2 |
| 2024 | 10 | PIT @ WAS | 28–27 | -1.7 | -1.5 | +1.0 | 2.7 |
| 2024 | 10 | SF @ TB | 23–20 | +5.1 | +6.5 | +3.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 10 | TEN @ LAC | 17–27 | -7.9 | -8.0 | -10.0 | 2.1 |
| 2024 | 9 | CHI @ ARI | 9–29 | +0.5 | -1.5 | -20.0 | 20.5 |
| 2024 | 9 | DAL @ ATL | 21–27 | -3.3 | -3.0 | -6.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | DEN @ BAL | 10–41 | -8.9 | -9.0 | -31.0 | 22.1 |
| 2024 | 9 | DET @ GB | 24–14 | +0.8 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 9.2 |
| 2024 | 9 | HOU @ NYJ | 13–21 | -1.1 | -2.5 | -8.0 | 6.9 |
| 2024 | 9 | IND @ MIN | 13–21 | -4.7 | -6.5 | -8.0 | 3.3 |
| 2024 | 9 | JAX @ PHI | 23–28 | -7.1 | -7.5 | -5.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | LA @ SEA | 26–20 | +1.3 | +1.5 | +6.0 | 4.7 |
| 2024 | 9 | LAC @ CLE | 27–10 | +1.8 | +2.0 | +17.0 | 15.2 |
| 2024 | 9 | LV @ CIN | 24–41 | -7.2 | -8.0 | -17.0 | 9.8 |
| 2024 | 9 | MIA @ BUF | 27–30 | -7.8 | -6.5 | -3.0 | 4.8 |
| 2024 | 9 | NE @ TEN | 17–20 | -5.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 2.0 |
| 2024 | 9 | NO @ CAR | 22–23 | +6.9 | +7.0 | -1.0 | 7.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | TB @ KC | 24–30 | -8.4 | -9.0 | -6.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 9 | WAS @ NYG | 27–22 | +4.6 | +4.5 | +5.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | ARI @ MIA | 28–27 | -3.5 | -4.0 | +1.0 | 4.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 8 | ATL @ TB | 31–26 | -0.4 | +1.5 | +5.0 | 5.4 |
| 2024 | 8 | BAL @ CLE | 24–29 | +8.0 | +7.5 | -5.0 | 13.0 |