Loading NFL data...
Loading NFL data...
Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | PHI vs NE | 41–33 | -4.4 | -4.5 | +8.0 | 12.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 20 | JAX @ NE | 20–24 | -8.1 | -7.5 | -4.0 | 4.1 |
| 2017 | 20 | MIN @ PHI | 7–38 | +1.5 | +3.0 | -31.0 | 32.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 19 | ATL @ PHI | 10–15 | +1.5 | +2.5 | -5.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| 19 |
| JAX @ PIT |
| 45–42 |
| -4.8 |
| -7.0 |
| +3.0 |
| 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 19 | NO @ MIN | 24–29 | -4.9 | -5.5 | -5.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 19 | TEN @ NE | 14–35 | -12.3 | -13.5 | -21.0 | 8.7 |
| 2017 | 18 | ATL @ LA | 26–13 | -1.4 | -6.5 | +13.0 | 14.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 18 | BUF @ JAX | 3–10 | -8.2 | -8.5 | -7.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 18 | CAR @ NO | 26–31 | -5.5 | -6.5 | -5.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 18 | TEN @ KC | 22–21 | -6.9 | -8.5 | +1.0 | 7.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | ARI @ SEA | 26–24 | -6.2 | -8.0 | +2.0 | 8.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | BUF @ MIA | 22–16 | +0.4 | +2.5 | +6.0 | 5.6 |
| 2017 | 17 | CAR @ ATL | 10–22 | -5.3 | -5.0 | -12.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | CHI @ MIN | 10–23 | -12.2 | -13.5 | -13.0 | 0.8 |
| 2017 | 17 | CIN @ BAL | 31–27 | -7.0 | -8.0 | +4.0 | 11.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | CLE @ PIT | 24–28 | -10.6 | -5.0 | -4.0 | 6.6 |
| 2017 | 17 | DAL @ PHI | 6–0 | -0.5 | +3.5 | +6.0 | 6.5 |
| 2017 | 17 | GB @ DET | 11–35 | -5.1 | -7.5 | -24.0 | 18.9 |
| 2017 | 17 | HOU @ IND | 13–22 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -9.0 | 5.5 |
| 2017 | 17 | JAX @ TEN | 10–15 | -0.6 | -2.5 | -5.0 | 4.4 |
| 2017 | 17 | KC @ DEN | 27–24 | -0.3 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | NO @ TB | 24–31 | +4.2 | +6.0 | -7.0 | 11.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | NYJ @ NE | 6–26 | -17.2 | -17.0 | -20.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | LV @ LAC | 10–30 | -7.2 | -7.0 | -20.0 | 12.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 17 | SF @ LA | 34–13 | +0.4 | +6.5 | +21.0 | 20.6 |
| 2017 | 17 | WAS @ NYG | 10–18 | +2.6 | +5.0 | -8.0 | 10.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 16 | ATL @ NO | 13–23 | -3.2 | -5.5 | -10.0 | 6.8 |
| 2017 | 16 | BUF @ NE | 16–37 | -13.0 | -11.0 | -21.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 16 | CLE @ CHI | 3–20 | -5.6 | -5.5 | -17.0 | 11.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 16 | DEN @ WAS | 11–27 | -2.4 | -3.0 | -16.0 | 13.6 |
| 2017 | 16 | DET @ CIN | 17–26 | +1.6 | +3.0 | -9.0 | 10.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 16 | IND @ BAL | 16–23 | -11.5 | -13.5 | -7.0 | 4.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 16 | JAX @ SF | 33–44 | +4.8 | +4.0 | -11.0 | 15.8 |
| 2017 | 16 | LA @ TEN | 27–23 | +2.7 | +5.5 | +4.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 16 | LAC @ NYJ | 14–7 | +7.3 | +7.5 | +7.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 16 | MIA @ KC | 13–29 | -10.4 | -11.0 | -16.0 | 5.6 |
| 2017 | 16 | MIN @ GB | 16–0 | +5.0 | +8.5 | +16.0 | 11.0 |
| 2017 | 16 | NYG @ ARI | 0–23 | -2.9 | -3.0 | -23.0 | 20.1 |
| 2017 | 16 | LV @ PHI | 10–19 | -9.0 | -10.0 | -9.0 | 0.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 16 | PIT @ HOU | 34–6 | +6.0 | +8.0 | +28.0 | 22.0 |
| 2017 | 16 | SEA @ DAL | 21–12 | -3.3 | -4.5 | +9.0 | 12.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 16 | TB @ CAR | 19–22 | -7.8 | -10.0 | -3.0 | 4.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 15 | ARI @ WAS | 15–20 | -2.8 | -4.0 | -5.0 | 2.2 |
| 2017 | 15 | ATL @ TB | 24–21 | +5.7 | +7.0 | +3.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 15 | BAL @ CLE | 27–10 | +6.5 | +6.5 | +17.0 | 10.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2017 | 15 | CHI @ DET | 10–20 | -5.0 | -5.0 | -10.0 | 5.0 |
| 2017 | 15 | CIN @ MIN | 7–34 | -9.3 | -12.5 | -27.0 | 17.7 |
| 2017 | 15 | DAL @ LV | 20–17 | +2.1 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 0.9 |
| 2017 | 15 | DEN @ IND | 25–13 | +2.0 | +3.0 | +12.0 | 10.0 |