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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | SF vs KC | 20–31 | -3.0 | -1.5 | -11.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 20 | GB @ SF | 20–37 | -4.7 | -8.0 | -17.0 | 12.3 |
| 2019 | 20 | TEN @ KC | 24–35 | -6.3 | -7.5 | -11.0 | 4.7 |
| 2019 | 19 | HOU @ KC | 31–51 | -10.1 | -10.0 | -20.0 | 9.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 19 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| MIN @ SF |
| 10–27 |
| -3.7 |
| -7.0 |
| -17.0 |
| 13.3 |
| 2019 | 19 | SEA @ GB | 23–28 | -2.9 | -4.5 | -5.0 | 2.1 |
| 2019 | 19 | TEN @ BAL | 28–12 | -7.4 | -10.0 | +16.0 | 23.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 18 | BUF @ HOU | 19–22 | -0.4 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 2.6 |
| 2019 | 18 | MIN @ NO | 26–20 | -7.3 | -7.5 | +6.0 | 13.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 18 | SEA @ PHI | 17–9 | -1.8 | -1.0 | +8.0 | 9.8 |
| 2019 | 18 | TEN @ NE | 20–13 | -4.2 | -4.5 | +7.0 | 11.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 17 | ARI @ LA | 24–31 | -7.5 | -7.0 | -7.0 | 0.5 |
| 2019 | 17 | ATL @ TB | 28–22 | -1.4 | -1.0 | +6.0 | 7.4 |
| 2019 | 17 | CHI @ MIN | 21–19 | +0.5 | +5.5 | +2.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 17 | CLE @ CIN | 23–33 | +4.4 | +2.5 | -10.0 | 14.4 |
| 2019 | 17 | GB @ DET | 23–20 | +9.6 | +13.5 | +3.0 | 6.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 17 | IND @ JAX | 20–38 | +4.9 | +5.0 | -18.0 | 22.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 17 | LAC @ KC | 21–31 | -9.3 | -10.0 | -10.0 | 0.7 |
| 2019 | 17 | MIA @ NE | 27–24 | -15.7 | -17.5 | +3.0 | 18.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 17 | NO @ CAR | 42–10 | +10.9 | +13.5 | +32.0 | 21.1 |
| 2019 | 17 | NYJ @ BUF | 13–6 | -2.2 | +1.5 | +7.0 | 9.2 |
| 2019 | 17 | LV @ DEN | 15–16 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -1.0 | 4.5 |
| 2019 | 17 | PHI @ NYG | 34–17 | +3.8 | +4.0 | +17.0 | 13.2 |
| 2019 | 17 | PIT @ BAL | 10–28 | -3.6 | +2.0 | -18.0 | 14.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 17 | SF @ SEA | 26–21 | +1.8 | +3.5 | +5.0 | 3.2 |
| 2019 | 17 | TEN @ HOU | 35–14 | +5.0 | +10.0 | +21.0 | 16.0 |
| 2019 | 17 | WAS @ DAL | 16–47 | -10.5 | -13.0 | -31.0 | 20.5 |
| 2019 | 16 | ARI @ SEA | 27–13 | -8.2 | -8.0 | +14.0 | 22.2 |
| 2019 | 16 | BAL @ CLE | 31–15 | +7.8 | +9.5 | +16.0 | 8.2 |
| 2019 | 16 | BUF @ NE | 17–24 | -6.7 | -7.0 | -7.0 | 0.3 |
| 2019 | 16 | CAR @ IND | 6–38 | -5.0 | -7.5 | -32.0 | 27.0 |
| 2019 | 16 | CIN @ MIA | 35–38 | +0.5 | +1.5 | -3.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 16 | DAL @ PHI | 9–17 | +1.2 | +2.0 | -8.0 | 9.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 16 | DET @ DEN | 17–27 | -7.4 | -9.5 | -10.0 | 2.6 |
| 2019 | 16 | GB @ MIN | 23–10 | -3.7 | -4.0 | +13.0 | 16.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 16 | HOU @ TB | 23–20 | +0.0 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 3.0 |
| 2019 | 16 | JAX @ ATL | 12–24 | -7.3 | -7.5 | -12.0 | 4.7 |
| 2019 | 16 | KC @ CHI | 26–3 | +5.4 | +6.5 | +23.0 | 17.6 |
| 2019 | 16 | LA @ SF | 31–34 | -4.2 | -7.0 | -3.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 16 | NO @ TEN | 38–28 | +3.5 | +3.5 | +10.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 16 | NYG @ WAS | 41–35 | +1.2 | +1.0 | +6.0 | 4.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 16 | LV @ LAC | 24–17 | -8.4 | -7.5 | +7.0 | 15.4 |
| 2019 | 16 | PIT @ NYJ | 10–16 | +3.6 | +3.0 | -6.0 | 9.6 |
| 2019 | 15 | ATL @ SF | 29–22 | -7.9 | -10.5 | +7.0 | 14.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2019 | 15 | BUF @ PIT | 17–10 | -1.8 | -1.0 | +7.0 | 8.8 |
| 2019 | 15 | CHI @ GB | 13–21 | -1.8 | -4.0 | -8.0 | 6.2 |
| 2019 | 15 | CLE @ ARI | 24–38 | +5.2 | +3.0 | -14.0 | 19.2 |
| 2019 | 15 | DEN @ KC | 3–23 | -8.0 | -10.0 | -20.0 | 12.0 |
| 2019 | 15 | HOU @ TEN | 24–21 | -3.2 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 6.2 |
| 2019 | 15 | IND @ NO | 7–34 | -6.3 | -8.0 | -27.0 | 20.7 |