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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 21 | KC vs TB | 9–31 | +2.1 | +3.0 | -22.0 | 24.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 20 | BUF @ KC | 24–38 | -1.3 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 12.7 |
| 2020 | 20 | TB @ GB | 31–26 | -2.6 | -3.0 | +5.0 | 7.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 19 | BAL @ BUF | 3–17 | +0.1 | -2.5 | -14.0 | 14.1 |
| 2020 | 19 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| CLE @ KC |
| 17–22 |
| -4.1 |
| -7.5 |
| -5.0 |
| 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 19 | LA @ GB | 18–32 | -5.8 | -7.0 | -14.0 | 8.2 |
| 2020 | 19 | TB @ NO | 30–20 | -3.2 | -2.5 | +10.0 | 13.2 |
| 2020 | 18 | BAL @ TEN | 20–13 | +5.3 | +3.5 | +7.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 18 | CHI @ NO | 9–21 | -11.0 | -11.0 | -12.0 | 1.0 |
| 2020 | 18 | CLE @ PIT | 48–37 | -2.7 | -5.0 | +11.0 | 13.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 18 | IND @ BUF | 24–27 | -6.3 | -7.0 | -3.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 18 | LA @ SEA | 30–20 | -2.2 | -3.0 | +10.0 | 12.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 18 | TB @ WAS | 31–23 | +8.8 | +10.0 | +8.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | ARI @ LA | 7–18 | -1.5 | -1.0 | -11.0 | 9.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | ATL @ TB | 27–44 | -6.0 | -7.5 | -17.0 | 11.0 |
| 2020 | 17 | BAL @ CIN | 38–3 | +12.8 | +13.5 | +35.0 | 22.2 |
| 2020 | 17 | DAL @ NYG | 19–23 | +3.0 | +1.5 | -4.0 | 7.0 |
| 2020 | 17 | GB @ CHI | 35–16 | +6.0 | +4.5 | +19.0 | 13.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | JAX @ IND | 14–28 | -13.9 | -15.5 | -14.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | LAC @ KC | 38–21 | -0.8 | +7.0 | +17.0 | 17.8 |
| 2020 | 17 | LV @ DEN | 32–31 | +1.5 | +2.5 | +1.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | MIA @ BUF | 26–56 | -2.0 | +3.5 | -30.0 | 28.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | MIN @ DET | 37–35 | +4.8 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 2.8 |
| 2020 | 17 | NO @ CAR | 33–7 | +8.1 | +6.0 | +26.0 | 17.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | NYJ @ NE | 14–28 | -3.1 | -3.0 | -14.0 | 10.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | PIT @ CLE | 22–24 | -6.0 | -10.5 | -2.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | SEA vs SF | 26–23 | +3.8 | +7.0 | +3.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | TEN @ HOU | 41–38 | +6.2 | +7.0 | +3.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 17 | WAS @ PHI | 20–14 | +1.5 | +6.5 | +6.0 | 4.5 |
| 2020 | 16 | ATL @ KC | 14–17 | -9.3 | -11.0 | -3.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 16 | BUF @ NE | 38–9 | +6.1 | +7.0 | +29.0 | 22.9 |
| 2020 | 16 | CAR @ WAS | 20–13 | -0.1 | +1.0 | +7.0 | 7.1 |
| 2020 | 16 | CHI @ JAX | 41–17 | +7.6 | +9.5 | +24.0 | 16.4 |
| 2020 | 16 | CIN @ HOU | 37–31 | -5.4 | -7.5 | +6.0 | 11.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 16 | CLE @ NYJ | 16–23 | +6.9 | +6.5 | -7.0 | 13.9 |
| 2020 | 16 | DEN @ LAC | 16–19 | -3.2 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 16 | IND @ PIT | 24–28 | +0.2 | +1.0 | -4.0 | 4.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 16 | LA @ SEA | 9–20 | -0.8 | -1.5 | -11.0 | 10.2 |
| 2020 | 16 | MIA @ LV | 26–25 | +2.0 | +2.0 | +1.0 | 1.0 |
| 2020 | 16 | MIN @ NO | 33–52 | -7.3 | -6.5 | -19.0 | 11.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 16 | NYG @ BAL | 13–27 | -11.5 | -10.0 | -14.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 16 | PHI @ DAL | 17–37 | +1.4 | +3.0 | -20.0 | 21.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 16 | SF @ ARI | 20–12 | -3.3 | -6.0 | +8.0 | 11.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 16 | TB @ DET | 47–7 | +9.5 | +12.0 | +40.0 | 30.5 |
| 2020 | 16 | TEN @ GB | 14–40 | -3.3 | -3.0 | -26.0 | 22.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 15 | BUF @ DEN | 48–19 | +5.6 | +5.5 | +29.0 | 23.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2020 | 15 | CAR @ GB | 16–24 | -10.1 | -9.5 | -8.0 | 2.1 |
| 2020 | 15 | CHI @ MIN | 33–27 | -2.8 | -2.5 | +6.0 | 8.8 |
| 2020 | 15 | CLE @ NYG | 20–6 | +4.3 | +6.0 | +14.0 | 9.7 |
| 2020 | 15 | DET @ TEN | 25–46 | -8.6 | -9.5 | -21.0 | 12.4 |