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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | SF vs KC | 22–25 | +1.0 | +1.5 | -3.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 21 | DET @ SF | 31–34 | -7.6 | -7.5 | -3.0 | 4.6 |
| 2023 | 21 | KC @ BAL | 17–10 | -3.4 | -4.5 | +7.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 20 | GB @ SF | 21–24 | -6.7 | -10.5 | -3.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| 20 |
| HOU @ BAL |
| 10–34 |
| -9.3 |
| -10.0 |
| -24.0 |
| 14.7 |
| 2023 | 20 | KC @ BUF | 27–24 | -2.0 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 20 | TB @ DET | 23–31 | -5.9 | -6.0 | -8.0 | 2.1 |
| 2023 | 19 | CLE @ HOU | 14–45 | +1.2 | +2.5 | -31.0 | 32.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 19 | GB @ DAL | 48–32 | -7.1 | -7.0 | +16.0 | 23.1 |
| 2023 | 19 | LA @ DET | 23–24 | -4.3 | -3.5 | -1.0 | 3.3 |
| 2023 | 19 | MIA @ KC | 7–26 | -3.3 | -4.5 | -19.0 | 15.7 |
| 2023 | 19 | PHI @ TB | 9–32 | +1.7 | +2.5 | -23.0 | 24.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 19 | PIT @ BUF | 17–31 | -7.4 | -10.0 | -14.0 | 6.6 |
| 2023 | 18 | ATL @ NO | 17–48 | -4.3 | -3.5 | -31.0 | 26.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | BUF @ MIA | 21–14 | +0.8 | +2.5 | +7.0 | 6.2 |
| 2023 | 18 | CHI @ GB | 9–17 | -3.1 | -2.5 | -8.0 | 4.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | CLE @ CIN | 14–31 | -3.9 | -7.5 | -17.0 | 13.1 |
| 2023 | 18 | DAL @ WAS | 38–10 | +11.8 | +13.0 | +28.0 | 16.2 |
| 2023 | 18 | DEN @ LV | 14–27 | -3.1 | -3.5 | -13.0 | 9.9 |
| 2023 | 18 | HOU @ IND | 23–19 | -0.0 | +1.5 | +4.0 | 4.0 |
| 2023 | 18 | JAX @ TEN | 20–28 | +2.8 | +3.5 | -8.0 | 10.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | KC @ LAC | 13–12 | -0.6 | -3.5 | +1.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | LA @ SF | 21–20 | -9.0 | -5.5 | +1.0 | 10.0 |
| 2023 | 18 | MIN @ DET | 20–30 | -5.1 | -3.5 | -10.0 | 4.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 18 | NYJ @ NE | 17–3 | -3.1 | -2.5 | +14.0 | 17.1 |
| 2023 | 18 | PHI @ NYG | 10–27 | +5.2 | +4.5 | -17.0 | 22.2 |
| 2023 | 18 | PIT @ BAL | 17–10 | -1.5 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 8.5 |
| 2023 | 18 | SEA @ ARI | 21–20 | +2.7 | +2.5 | +1.0 | 1.7 |
| 2023 | 18 | TB @ CAR | 9–0 | +2.8 | +5.0 | +9.0 | 6.2 |
| 2023 | 17 | ARI @ PHI | 35–31 | -12.3 | -12.0 | +4.0 | 16.3 |
| 2023 | 17 | ATL @ CHI | 17–37 | -2.0 | -3.0 | -20.0 | 18.0 |
| 2023 | 17 | CAR @ JAX | 0–26 | -4.0 | -3.5 | -26.0 | 22.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | CIN @ KC | 17–25 | -7.4 | -7.5 | -8.0 | 0.6 |
| 2023 | 17 | DET @ DAL | 19–20 | -6.0 | -5.5 | -1.0 | 5.0 |
| 2023 | 17 | GB @ MIN | 33–10 | -2.0 | -1.0 | +23.0 | 25.0 |
| 2023 | 17 | LA @ NYG | 26–25 | +5.3 | +6.0 | +1.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | LAC @ DEN | 9–16 | -2.7 | -3.5 | -7.0 | 4.3 |
| 2023 | 17 | LV @ IND | 20–23 | -1.6 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 1.4 |
| 2023 | 17 | MIA @ BAL | 19–56 | -2.8 | -3.0 | -37.0 | 34.2 |
| 2023 | 17 | NE @ BUF | 21–27 | -12.5 | -15.0 | -6.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | NO @ TB | 23–13 | -1.8 | -2.5 | +10.0 | 11.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | NYJ @ CLE | 20–37 | -6.6 | -6.5 | -17.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | PIT @ SEA | 30–23 | -2.4 | -4.5 | +7.0 | 9.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 17 | SF @ WAS | 27–10 | +13.1 | +14.0 | +17.0 | 3.9 |
| 2023 | 17 | TEN @ HOU | 3–26 | -2.1 | -5.0 | -23.0 | 20.9 |
| 2023 | 16 | ARI @ CHI | 16–27 | -5.8 | -4.5 | -11.0 | 5.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | BAL @ SF | 33–19 | -6.2 | -6.5 | +14.0 | 20.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | BUF @ LAC | 24–22 | +9.9 | +13.0 | +2.0 | 7.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | CIN @ PIT | 11–34 | +2.6 | +3.0 | -23.0 | 25.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2023 | 16 | CLE @ HOU | 36–22 | +2.6 | +3.0 | +14.0 | 11.4 |