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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | KC vs PHI | 22–40 | -0.4 | +1.5 | -18.0 | 17.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 21 | BUF @ KC | 29–32 | +0.2 | -1.5 | -3.0 | 3.2 |
| 2024 | 21 | WAS @ PHI | 23–55 | -5.5 | -6.0 | -32.0 | 26.5 |
| 2024 | 20 | BAL @ BUF | 25–27 | +1.3 | +1.5 | -2.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 20 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| HOU @ KC |
| 14–23 |
| -5.5 |
| -9.5 |
| -9.0 |
| 3.5 |
| 2024 | 20 | LA @ PHI | 22–28 | -5.5 | -7.0 | -6.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 20 | WAS @ DET | 45–31 | -8.1 | -8.5 | +14.0 | 22.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 19 | DEN @ BUF | 7–31 | -5.6 | -7.5 | -24.0 | 18.4 |
| 2024 | 19 | GB @ PHI | 10–22 | -2.9 | -5.5 | -12.0 | 9.1 |
| 2024 | 19 | LAC @ HOU | 12–32 | +1.6 | +3.0 | -20.0 | 21.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 19 | MIN vs LA | 9–27 | +1.8 | +2.5 | -18.0 | 19.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 19 | PIT @ BAL | 14–28 | -11.0 | -9.5 | -14.0 | 3.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 19 | WAS @ TB | 23–20 | -3.6 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 6.6 |
| 2024 | 18 | BUF @ NE | 16–23 | +8.1 | +3.0 | -7.0 | 15.1 |
| 2024 | 18 | CAR @ ATL | 44–38 | -8.0 | -7.5 | +6.0 | 14.0 |
| 2024 | 18 | CHI @ GB | 24–22 | -11.0 | -10.0 | +2.0 | 13.0 |
| 2024 | 18 | CIN @ PIT | 19–17 | +2.6 | +2.5 | +2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2024 | 18 | CLE @ BAL | 10–35 | -17.7 | -19.5 | -25.0 | 7.3 |
| 2024 | 18 | HOU @ TEN | 23–14 | +1.2 | -2.5 | +9.0 | 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 18 | JAX @ IND | 23–26 | -4.0 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 1.0 |
| 2024 | 18 | KC @ DEN | 0–38 | -4.4 | -10.5 | -38.0 | 33.6 |
| 2024 | 18 | LAC @ LV | 34–20 | +4.8 | +7.0 | +14.0 | 9.2 |
| 2024 | 18 | MIA @ NYJ | 20–32 | -0.2 | -1.5 | -12.0 | 11.8 |
| 2024 | 18 | MIN @ DET | 9–31 | -4.7 | -3.0 | -22.0 | 17.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 18 | NO @ TB | 19–27 | -12.4 | -14.5 | -8.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 18 | NYG @ PHI | 13–20 | -7.7 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 18 | SEA @ LA | 30–25 | +1.8 | +7.5 | +5.0 | 3.2 |
| 2024 | 18 | SF @ ARI | 24–47 | -2.4 | -4.5 | -23.0 | 20.6 |
| 2024 | 18 | WAS @ DAL | 23–19 | +3.9 | +7.0 | +4.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 17 | ARI @ LA | 9–13 | -5.5 | -6.5 | -4.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 17 | ATL @ WAS | 24–30 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -6.0 | 2.5 |
| 2024 | 17 | BAL @ HOU | 31–2 | +4.8 | +5.5 | +29.0 | 24.2 |
| 2024 | 17 | CAR @ TB | 14–48 | -10.4 | -9.5 | -34.0 | 23.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 17 | DAL @ PHI | 7–41 | -6.5 | -7.5 | -34.0 | 27.5 |
| 2024 | 17 | DEN @ CIN | 24–30 | -4.7 | -3.5 | -6.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 17 | DET @ SF | 40–34 | +2.2 | +4.0 | +6.0 | 3.8 |
| 2024 | 17 | GB @ MIN | 25–27 | +3.0 | +1.0 | -2.0 | 5.0 |
| 2024 | 17 | IND @ NYG | 33–45 | +6.4 | +7.5 | -12.0 | 18.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 17 | KC @ PIT | 29–10 | +2.6 | +3.0 | +19.0 | 16.4 |
| 2024 | 17 | LAC @ NE | 40–7 | +5.7 | +6.0 | +33.0 | 27.3 |
| 2024 | 17 | LV @ NO | 25–10 | +1.1 | +2.0 | +15.0 | 13.9 |
| 2024 | 17 | MIA @ CLE | 20–3 | +4.3 | +3.0 | +17.0 | 12.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 17 | NYJ @ BUF | 14–40 | -9.9 | -10.0 | -26.0 | 16.1 |
| 2024 | 17 | SEA @ CHI | 6–3 | +1.9 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2024 | 17 | TEN @ JAX | 13–20 | -1.7 | +1.0 | -7.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 16 | ARI @ CAR | 30–36 | +5.4 | +5.5 | -6.0 | 11.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 16 | CLE @ CIN | 6–24 | -8.9 | -10.0 | -18.0 | 9.1 |
| 2024 | 16 | DEN @ LAC | 27–34 | -2.8 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 4.2 |
| 2024 | 16 | DET @ CHI | 34–17 | +7.2 | +7.0 | +17.0 | 9.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 16 | HOU @ KC | 19–27 | -4.1 | -3.5 | -8.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |