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Every graded prediction from the historical walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and final margin. Lines are quoted for the home team.
Pick history| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | SEA vs NE | 29–13 | +2.6 | +4.5 | +16.0 | 13.4 |
| 2025 | 21 | LA @ SEA | 27–31 | -2.6 | -2.5 | -4.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 21 | NE @ DEN | 10–7 | +2.7 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 20 | BUF @ DEN | 30–33 | +0.2 | -1.5 | -3.0 | 3.2 |
| 2025 | 20 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.
| HOU @ NE |
| 16–28 |
| -2.9 |
| -3.0 |
| -12.0 |
| 9.1 |
| 2025 | 20 | LA @ CHI | 20–17 | +3.7 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 0.7 |
| 2025 | 20 | SF @ SEA | 6–41 | -5.1 | -6.5 | -35.0 | 29.9 |
| 2025 | 19 | BUF @ JAX | 27–24 | +0.6 | -1.5 | +3.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 19 | GB @ CHI | 27–31 | +1.5 | +2.5 | -4.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 19 | HOU @ PIT | 30–6 | +2.0 | +3.0 | +24.0 | 22.0 |
| 2025 | 19 | LA @ CAR | 34–31 | +9.1 | +10.0 | +3.0 | 6.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 19 | LAC @ NE | 3–16 | -4.1 | -3.5 | -13.0 | 8.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 19 | SF @ PHI | 23–19 | -5.1 | -6.0 | +4.0 | 9.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 18 | ARI @ LA | 20–37 | -13.4 | -14.5 | -17.0 | 3.6 |
| 2025 | 18 | BAL @ PIT | 24–26 | +4.0 | +4.5 | -2.0 | 6.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 18 | CAR @ TB | 14–16 | -4.0 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 2.0 |
| 2025 | 18 | CLE @ CIN | 20–18 | -8.8 | -9.5 | +2.0 | 10.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 18 | DAL @ NYG | 17–34 | +1.6 | +3.0 | -17.0 | 18.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 18 | DET @ CHI | 19–16 | -1.4 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 18 | GB @ MIN | 3–16 | -6.0 | -12.5 | -13.0 | 7.0 |
| 2025 | 18 | IND @ HOU | 30–38 | -7.9 | -9.5 | -8.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 18 | KC @ LV | 12–14 | +5.5 | +3.5 | -2.0 | 7.5 |
| 2025 | 18 | LAC @ DEN | 3–19 | -8.2 | -14.5 | -16.0 | 7.8 |
| 2025 | 18 | MIA @ NE | 10–38 | -11.3 | -14.0 | -28.0 | 16.7 |
| 2025 | 18 | NO @ ATL | 17–19 | -5.0 | -4.5 | -2.0 | 3.0 |
| 2025 | 18 | NYJ @ BUF | 8–35 | -14.6 | -12.5 | -27.0 | 12.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 18 | SEA @ SF | 13–3 | +1.5 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 8.5 |
| 2025 | 18 | TEN @ JAX | 7–41 | -11.4 | -12.5 | -34.0 | 22.6 |
| 2025 | 18 | WAS @ PHI | 24–17 | -7.3 | -3.0 | +7.0 | 14.3 |
| 2025 | 17 | ARI @ CIN | 14–37 | -6.4 | -7.0 | -23.0 | 16.6 |
| 2025 | 17 | BAL @ GB | 41–24 | -1.8 | -2.5 | +17.0 | 18.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 17 | CHI @ SF | 38–42 | -4.2 | -3.5 | -4.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 17 | DAL @ WAS | 30–23 | +4.4 | +8.5 | +7.0 | 2.6 |
| 2025 | 17 | DEN @ KC | 20–13 | +6.8 | +13.5 | +7.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 17 | DET @ MIN | 10–23 | +4.9 | +7.0 | -13.0 | 17.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 17 | HOU @ LAC | 20–16 | -1.3 | -1.5 | +4.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 17 | JAX @ IND | 23–17 | +2.4 | +3.5 | +6.0 | 3.6 |
| 2025 | 17 | LA @ ATL | 24–27 | +7.2 | +7.5 | -3.0 | 10.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 17 | NE @ NYJ | 42–10 | +10.5 | +12.5 | +32.0 | 21.5 |
| 2025 | 17 | NO @ TEN | 34–26 | +1.0 | +1.5 | +8.0 | 7.0 |
| 2025 | 17 | NYG @ LV | 34–10 | +1.4 | +3.0 | +24.0 | 22.6 |
| 2025 | 17 | PHI @ BUF | 13–12 | -1.9 | -3.0 | +1.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 17 | PIT @ CLE | 6–13 | +4.9 | +4.5 | -7.0 | 11.9 |
| 2025 | 17 | SEA @ CAR | 27–10 | +7.4 | +6.5 | +17.0 | 9.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 17 | TB @ MIA | 17–20 | +3.2 | +5.5 | -3.0 | 6.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 16 | ATL @ ARI | 26–19 | +2.0 | +2.5 | +7.0 | 5.0 |
| 2025 | 16 | BUF @ CLE | 23–20 | +10.2 | +10.5 | +3.0 | 7.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 16 | CIN @ MIA | 45–21 | +1.3 | +3.5 | +24.0 | 22.7 |
| 2025 | 16 | GB @ CHI | 16–22 | +0.0 | -1.5 | -6.0 | 6.0 |
| 2025 | 16 | JAX @ DEN | 34–20 | -3.5 | -3.5 | +14.0 | 17.5 (model closer than the closing line) |