The race, week by week

NFL MVP and Awards Tracker

Award forecasts alongside on-field performance. Follow the leaders, see what drives their rankings, and revisit each weekly snapshot.

Updates after completed weekly games

Last updated:

Defensive Player of the Year

2026 season · Through week 5

Choose a historical snapshot

2026 · W5 2026 · W4 2026 · W3 2026 · W2 2026 · W1 2026 · W0

Forecast leader

Will Anderson Jr.

HOU · DE

Historical top-three hit rate

33%

6 retrospective validation seasons at this horizon

Forecast status

Experimental

Win percentages withheld pending validation

Race trajectory

Predicted rank by weekly snapshot for the current top 8. Each point is what the board said after that week, not a recomputation; weeks ranked below 25 run off the bottom.

Weekly leaders

Week 1

Aidan Hutchinson

DET

Week 2

Greg Rousseau

BUF

Week 3

Greg Rousseau

BUF

Week 4

Greg Rousseau

BUF

Week 5

Will Anderson Jr.

HOU

Methodology and validation

Each award has a separate regularized model trained on earlier seasons only. Candidates come from statistics available at the selected cutoff. Missing winners count as misses. The model predicts award winners; it does not estimate ballot share.

Remaining-season player totals shrink toward prior-season rates with a four-game prior. Team records use a beta prior. Coach forecasts compare projected wins with a preseason baseline formed from the prior season record. These projections assume continued availability and do not yet model future injury risk. Full-game production informs the award forecast; competitive-drive EPA is a separate performance measure. Awards do not change team ratings.

Historical results use reconstructed source files and a 24-hour result-availability assumption. Previously inspected years are retrospective validation, not a fresh holdout. CPOY training excludes seasons before the 2024 criteria change.

Winner hit rate: 17%. Winner coverage: 100%. Log loss: 3.99. Brier score: 1.17.

Precise probabilities require at least eight validation seasons, complete winner coverage, better log loss than a uniform baseline, and a leader-confidence gap of at most ten percentage points. Until then, rankings remain experimental.

Sources: nflverse player and schedule data, NFL Record and Fact Book, and NFL Honors results.

Rank	Candidate	Season line	Weekly move	Performance rank	Win probability
1	Will Anderson Jr.HOU · DE 5 games played. Projected finish: 21.3 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 2.44. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score sacks: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	15 tkl, 7.5 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF	+2	#5	Experimental
2	Greg RousseauBUF · LB 5 games played. Projected finish: 16.3 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 2.83. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	14 tkl, 6 sacks, 0 INT · 3 FF	-1	#3	Experimental
3	T.J. WattPIT · OLB 4 games played. Projected finish: 14.3 sacks · 3.4 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 3.49. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score defensive TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	10 tkl, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT · 1 FF	-1	#2	Experimental
4	Devin LloydCAR · LB 3 games played. Projected finish: 3.6 sacks · 8.2 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 3.94. Main forecast factors defensive interceptions: raises the model score defensive TDs: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	20 tkl, 1 sacks, 2 INT	+6	#1	Experimental
5	George KarlaftisKC · DE 4 games played. Projected finish: 2.4 sacks · 2.6 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.03. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	6 tkl, 0 sacks, 1 INT	+2	#31	Experimental
6	Zach AllenDEN · DE 5 games played. Projected finish: 11.5 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.29. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	8 tkl, 4 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF	-2	#16	Experimental
7	Maxx CrosbyLV · DE 5 games played. Projected finish: 8.2 sacks · 0.4 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.80. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF	-1	#55	Experimental
8	Aidan HutchinsonDET · DE 5 games played. Projected finish: 13.9 sacks · 0.3 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.10. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	8 tkl, 4 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF	0	#23	Experimental
9	Andrew Van GinkelMIN · OLB 5 games played. Projected finish: 12.4 sacks · 2.8 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.41. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score defensive interceptions: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	8 tkl, 4 sacks, 1 INT · 1 FF	0	#12	Experimental
10	Dallas TurnerMIN · LB 5 games played. Projected finish: 15.3 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.69. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	10 tkl, 5.5 sacks, 0 INT · 2 FF	-5	#9	Experimental
11	DeForest BucknerIND · DT 5 games played. Projected finish: 11.5 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.97. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	8 tkl, 4 sacks, 0 INT	+4	#35	Experimental
12	Leonard WilliamsSEA · DE 5 games played. Projected finish: 9.3 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.70. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	7 tkl, 3 sacks, 0 INT	0	#69	Experimental
13	Ed OliverBUF · DT 3 games played. Projected finish: 8.2 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.13. Main forecast factors tackles for loss: raises the model score QB hits: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 tkl, 0.5 sacks, 0 INT	+1	#231	Experimental
14	Josh Hines-AllenJAX · DE 5 games played. Projected finish: 6 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.71. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	9 tkl, 1.5 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF	+9	#68	Experimental
15	Austin BookerCHI · DE 5 games played. Projected finish: 11.7 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.26. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	10 tkl, 4 sacks, 0 INT · 2 FF	+18	#17	Experimental
16	Alex HighsmithPIT · LB 4 games played. Projected finish: 11.9 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.91. Main forecast factors tackles for loss: raises the model score QB hits: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	4 tkl, 3 sacks, 0 INT	-5	#44	Experimental
17	Elijah PonderNE · LB 5 games played. Projected finish: 12 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.36. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	11 tkl, 4.5 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF	+28	#14	Experimental
18	Tuli TuipulotuLAC · LB 5 games played. Projected finish: 9.3 sacks · 2.3 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.40. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score defensive interceptions: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	11 tkl, 2 sacks, 1 INT · 2 FF	-5	#13	Experimental
19	Nik BonittoDEN · LB 5 games played. Projected finish: 11.4 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.62. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	7 tkl, 3 sacks, 0 INT	+13	#89	Experimental
20	Maliek CollinsCLE · DT 5 games played. Projected finish: 9 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.48. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	3 tkl, 2.5 sacks, 0 INT	+17	#118	Experimental
21	Byron MurphyMIN · CB 5 games played. Projected finish: 0 sacks · 7.6 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.13. Main forecast factors defensive interceptions: raises the model score projected team wins: raises the model score QB hits: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	15 tkl, 0 sacks, 3 INT	+69	#22	Experimental
22	David BaileyNYJ · LB 5 games played. Projected finish: 12.3 sacks · 0.1 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 1.83. Main forecast factors tackles for loss: raises the model score QB hits: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	18 tkl, 5 sacks, 0 INT · 2 FF	+137	#8	Experimental
23	Lukas Van NessGB · LB 5 games played. Projected finish: 7.2 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.74. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	13 tkl, 2.5 sacks, 0 INT	-4	#63	Experimental
24	Byron YoungLA · LB 5 games played. Projected finish: 11.9 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.88. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	9 tkl, 3.5 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF	-8	#46	Experimental
25	Jeffery SimmonsTEN · DT 5 games played. Projected finish: 8.6 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions. Defensive production index: 0.72. Main forecast factors QB hits: raises the model score tackles for loss: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	15 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT	-3	#66	Experimental

Rank

Candidate

Season line

Weekly move

Performance rank

Win probability

Will Anderson Jr.HOU · DE

5 games played. Projected finish: 21.3 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 2.44.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
sacks: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

15 tkl, 7.5 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF

Experimental

Greg RousseauBUF · LB

5 games played. Projected finish: 16.3 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 2.83.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

14 tkl, 6 sacks, 0 INT · 3 FF

-1

Experimental

T.J. WattPIT · OLB

4 games played. Projected finish: 14.3 sacks · 3.4 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 3.49.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
defensive TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

10 tkl, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT · 1 FF

-1

Experimental

Devin LloydCAR · LB

3 games played. Projected finish: 3.6 sacks · 8.2 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 3.94.

Main forecast factors

defensive interceptions: raises the model score
defensive TDs: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

20 tkl, 1 sacks, 2 INT

Experimental

George KarlaftisKC · DE

4 games played. Projected finish: 2.4 sacks · 2.6 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.03.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

6 tkl, 0 sacks, 1 INT

#31

Experimental

Zach AllenDEN · DE

5 games played. Projected finish: 11.5 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.29.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

8 tkl, 4 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF

-2

#16

Experimental

Maxx CrosbyLV · DE

5 games played. Projected finish: 8.2 sacks · 0.4 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.80.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF

-1

#55

Experimental

Aidan HutchinsonDET · DE

5 games played. Projected finish: 13.9 sacks · 0.3 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.10.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

8 tkl, 4 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF

#23

Experimental

Andrew Van GinkelMIN · OLB

5 games played. Projected finish: 12.4 sacks · 2.8 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.41.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
defensive interceptions: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

8 tkl, 4 sacks, 1 INT · 1 FF

#12

Experimental

Dallas TurnerMIN · LB

5 games played. Projected finish: 15.3 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.69.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

10 tkl, 5.5 sacks, 0 INT · 2 FF

-5

Experimental

DeForest BucknerIND · DT

5 games played. Projected finish: 11.5 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.97.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

8 tkl, 4 sacks, 0 INT

#35

Experimental

Leonard WilliamsSEA · DE

5 games played. Projected finish: 9.3 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.70.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

7 tkl, 3 sacks, 0 INT

#69

Experimental

Ed OliverBUF · DT

3 games played. Projected finish: 8.2 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.13.

Main forecast factors

tackles for loss: raises the model score
QB hits: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 tkl, 0.5 sacks, 0 INT

#231

Experimental

Josh Hines-AllenJAX · DE

5 games played. Projected finish: 6 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.71.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

9 tkl, 1.5 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF

#68

Experimental

Austin BookerCHI · DE

5 games played. Projected finish: 11.7 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.26.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

10 tkl, 4 sacks, 0 INT · 2 FF

+18

#17

Experimental

Alex HighsmithPIT · LB

4 games played. Projected finish: 11.9 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.91.

Main forecast factors

tackles for loss: raises the model score
QB hits: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

4 tkl, 3 sacks, 0 INT

-5

#44

Experimental

Elijah PonderNE · LB

5 games played. Projected finish: 12 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.36.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

11 tkl, 4.5 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF

+28

#14

Experimental

Tuli TuipulotuLAC · LB

5 games played. Projected finish: 9.3 sacks · 2.3 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.40.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
defensive interceptions: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

11 tkl, 2 sacks, 1 INT · 2 FF

-5

#13

Experimental

Nik BonittoDEN · LB

5 games played. Projected finish: 11.4 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.62.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

7 tkl, 3 sacks, 0 INT

+13

#89

Experimental

Maliek CollinsCLE · DT

5 games played. Projected finish: 9 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.48.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

3 tkl, 2.5 sacks, 0 INT

+17

#118

Experimental

Byron MurphyMIN · CB

5 games played. Projected finish: 0 sacks · 7.6 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.13.

Main forecast factors

defensive interceptions: raises the model score
projected team wins: raises the model score
QB hits: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

15 tkl, 0 sacks, 3 INT

+69

#22

Experimental

David BaileyNYJ · LB

5 games played. Projected finish: 12.3 sacks · 0.1 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 1.83.

Main forecast factors

tackles for loss: raises the model score
QB hits: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

18 tkl, 5 sacks, 0 INT · 2 FF

+137

Experimental

Lukas Van NessGB · LB

5 games played. Projected finish: 7.2 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.74.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

13 tkl, 2.5 sacks, 0 INT

-4

#63

Experimental

Byron YoungLA · LB

5 games played. Projected finish: 11.9 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.88.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

9 tkl, 3.5 sacks, 0 INT · 1 FF

-8

#46

Experimental

Jeffery SimmonsTEN · DT

5 games played. Projected finish: 8.6 sacks · 0 defensive interceptions.

Defensive production index: 0.72.

Main forecast factors

QB hits: raises the model score
tackles for loss: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

15 tkl, 2 sacks, 0 INT

-3

#66

Experimental