The race, week by week

NFL MVP and Awards Tracker

Award forecasts alongside on-field performance. Follow the leaders, see what drives their rankings, and revisit each weekly snapshot.

Updates after completed weekly games

Last updated:

Most Valuable Player

2026 season · Through week 5

Choose a historical snapshot

2026 · W5 2026 · W4 2026 · W3 2026 · W2 2026 · W1 2026 · W0

Forecast leader

Brock Purdy

SF · QB

Historical top-three hit rate

50%

6 retrospective validation seasons at this horizon

Forecast status

Experimental

Win percentages withheld pending validation

Race trajectory

Predicted rank by weekly snapshot for the current top 8. Each point is what the board said after that week, not a recomputation; weeks ranked below 25 run off the bottom.

Weekly leaders

Week 1

Josh Allen

BUF

Week 2

Josh Allen

BUF

Week 3

Brock Purdy

Week 4

Brock Purdy

Week 5

Brock Purdy

Methodology and validation

Each award has a separate regularized model trained on earlier seasons only. Candidates come from statistics available at the selected cutoff. Missing winners count as misses. The model predicts award winners; it does not estimate ballot share.

Remaining-season player totals shrink toward prior-season rates with a four-game prior. Team records use a beta prior. Coach forecasts compare projected wins with a preseason baseline formed from the prior season record. These projections assume continued availability and do not yet model future injury risk. Full-game production informs the award forecast; competitive-drive EPA is a separate performance measure. Awards do not change team ratings.

Historical results use reconstructed source files and a 24-hour result-availability assumption. Previously inspected years are retrospective validation, not a fresh holdout. CPOY training excludes seasons before the 2024 criteria change.

Winner hit rate: 0%. Winner coverage: 100%. Log loss: 3.06. Brier score: 1.10.

Precise probabilities require at least eight validation seasons, complete winner coverage, better log loss than a uniform baseline, and a leader-confidence gap of at most ten percentage points. Until then, rankings remain experimental.

Sources: nflverse player and schedule data, NFL Record and Fact Book, and NFL Honors results.

Rank	Candidate	Season line	Weekly move	Performance rank	Win probability
1	Brock PurdySF · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 4,074.8 passing yards · 42.2 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 17.02. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score QB position: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,196 pass yds, 13 TD, 2 INT · 128 rush yds, 1 TD	0	#2	Experimental
2	Jared GoffDET · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 4,896.8 passing yards · 38.7 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.27. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score QB position: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,485 pass yds, 12 TD, 0 INT · 16 rush yds, 1 TD	0	#20	Experimental
3	Patrick MahomesKC · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,387.5 passing yards · 33.8 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 8.58. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,037 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT · 41 rush yds, 1 TD	0	#18	Experimental
4	Josh AllenBUF · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 4,137 passing yards · 24.7 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 23.82. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,249 pass yds, 7 TD, 4 INT · 239 rush yds, 8 TD · 1 rec yds, 0 TD	+1	#1	Experimental
5	Lamar JacksonBAL · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 3,594 passing yards · 24.7 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.95. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score rushing yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	967 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT · 144 rush yds, 1 TD	-1	#10	Experimental
6	Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 3,996.4 passing yards · 32.4 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.24. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,174 pass yds, 10 TD, 3 INT · 59 rush yds, 0 TD	+1	#13	Experimental
7	Joe BurrowCIN · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 4,381.7 passing yards · 37 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 13.43. Main forecast factors passing TDs: raises the model score QB position: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,361 pass yds, 11 TD, 3 INT · 48 rush yds, 1 TD	+9	#4	Experimental
8	Bryce YoungCAR · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 4,551.7 passing yards · 33 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.11. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,268 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT · 19 rush yds, 1 TD	0	#23	Experimental
9	Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB 4 games played. Projected finish: 1,802.3 rushing yards · 12.4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 11.99. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score games remaining: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	537 rush yds, 4 TD · 84 rec yds, 2 TD	0	#7	Experimental
10	Jordan LoveGB · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 4,487.5 passing yards · 31.5 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.79. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,408 pass yds, 10 TD, 3 INT	+8	#29	Experimental
11	Deshaun WatsonCLE · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 3,230.6 passing yards · 22.1 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.90. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,010 pass yds, 7 TD, 2 INT · 167 rush yds, 0 TD	+1	#74	Experimental
12	Dak PrescottDAL · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 4,650.4 passing yards · 30.4 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 15.04. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,381 pass yds, 9 TD, 3 INT · 66 rush yds, 0 TD	-6	#3	Experimental
13	Jalen HurtsPHI · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 3,251.7 passing yards · 27 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.57. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	933 pass yds, 8 TD, 3 INT · 107 rush yds, 1 TD	-3	#56	Experimental
14	James CookBUF · RB 5 games played. Projected finish: 1,749.9 rushing yards · 15.4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 11.67. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	532 rush yds, 5 TD · 31 rec yds, 0 TD	+3	#8	Experimental
15	C.J. StroudHOU · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 4,429.8 passing yards · 21.2 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.61. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score passing yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,402 pass yds, 6 TD, 0 INT · 71 rush yds, 1 TD	+6	#11	Experimental
16	Kirk CousinsLV · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 3,878.9 passing yards · 33.3 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 9.18. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,269 pass yds, 12 TD, 4 INT	-1	#14	Experimental
17	Jayden DanielsWAS · QB 3 games played. Projected finish: 2,482.1 passing yards · 16 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 5.66. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score rushing yards: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	459 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 203 rush yds, 2 TD	+6	#26	Experimental
18	Jaxson DartNYG · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 2,048.3 passing yards · 17.6 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.22. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score rushing yards: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	250 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 54 rush yds, 0 TD	-7	#37	Experimental
19	Aaron RodgersPIT · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 3,986.7 passing yards · 31.3 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -1.00. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,234 pass yds, 10 TD, 4 INT · 18 rush yds, 0 TD	+13	#419	Experimental
20	Derrick HenryBAL · RB 5 games played. Projected finish: 1,611.1 rushing yards · 21.4 rushing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.40. Main forecast factors rushing yards: raises the model score RB position: raises the model score games played: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	476 rush yds, 7 TD · 62 rec yds, 1 TD	-7	#12	Experimental
21	Kyler MurrayMIN · QB 4 games played. Projected finish: 2,809.4 passing yards · 12.2 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.57. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	662 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT · 93 rush yds, 0 TD	+15	#89	Experimental
22	Drake MayeNE · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 4,243.8 passing yards · 28.4 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 9.07. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score passing TDs: raises the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,228 pass yds, 8 TD, 7 INT · 161 rush yds, 1 TD	+32	#15	Experimental
23	Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB 2 games played. Projected finish: 3,076.1 passing yards · 18.7 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.43. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	407 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 107 rush yds, 2 TD	-9	#31	Experimental
24	Geno SmithNYJ · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 3,604.9 passing yards · 20.8 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -1.45. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	1,084 pass yds, 6 TD, 0 INT · 43 rush yds, 0 TD	+5	#423	Experimental
25	Bo NixDEN · QB 5 games played. Projected finish: 3,431.3 passing yards · 21.8 passing TDs. Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.39. Main forecast factors QB position: raises the model score passing TDs: raises the model score interceptions: lowers the model score Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.	942 pass yds, 6 TD, 3 INT · 35 rush yds, 1 TD	+3	#47	Experimental

Rank

Candidate

Season line

Weekly move

Performance rank

Win probability

Brock PurdySF · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 4,074.8 passing yards · 42.2 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 17.02.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
QB position: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,196 pass yds, 13 TD, 2 INT · 128 rush yds, 1 TD

Experimental

Jared GoffDET · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 4,896.8 passing yards · 38.7 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.27.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
QB position: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,485 pass yds, 12 TD, 0 INT · 16 rush yds, 1 TD

#20

Experimental

Patrick MahomesKC · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,387.5 passing yards · 33.8 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 8.58.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,037 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT · 41 rush yds, 1 TD

#18

Experimental

Josh AllenBUF · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 4,137 passing yards · 24.7 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 23.82.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,249 pass yds, 7 TD, 4 INT · 239 rush yds, 8 TD · 1 rec yds, 0 TD

Experimental

Lamar JacksonBAL · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 3,594 passing yards · 24.7 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.95.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

967 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT · 144 rush yds, 1 TD

-1

#10

Experimental

Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 3,996.4 passing yards · 32.4 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.24.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,174 pass yds, 10 TD, 3 INT · 59 rush yds, 0 TD

#13

Experimental

Joe BurrowCIN · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 4,381.7 passing yards · 37 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 13.43.

Main forecast factors

passing TDs: raises the model score
QB position: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,361 pass yds, 11 TD, 3 INT · 48 rush yds, 1 TD

Experimental

Bryce YoungCAR · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 4,551.7 passing yards · 33 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 7.11.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,268 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT · 19 rush yds, 1 TD

#23

Experimental

Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB

4 games played. Projected finish: 1,802.3 rushing yards · 12.4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 11.99.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
games remaining: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

537 rush yds, 4 TD · 84 rec yds, 2 TD

Experimental

Jordan LoveGB · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 4,487.5 passing yards · 31.5 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.79.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,408 pass yds, 10 TD, 3 INT

#29

Experimental

Deshaun WatsonCLE · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 3,230.6 passing yards · 22.1 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.90.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,010 pass yds, 7 TD, 2 INT · 167 rush yds, 0 TD

#74

Experimental

Dak PrescottDAL · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 4,650.4 passing yards · 30.4 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 15.04.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,381 pass yds, 9 TD, 3 INT · 66 rush yds, 0 TD

-6

Experimental

Jalen HurtsPHI · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 3,251.7 passing yards · 27 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 1.57.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

933 pass yds, 8 TD, 3 INT · 107 rush yds, 1 TD

-3

#56

Experimental

James CookBUF · RB

5 games played. Projected finish: 1,749.9 rushing yards · 15.4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 11.67.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

532 rush yds, 5 TD · 31 rec yds, 0 TD

Experimental

C.J. StroudHOU · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 4,429.8 passing yards · 21.2 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.61.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
passing yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,402 pass yds, 6 TD, 0 INT · 71 rush yds, 1 TD

#11

Experimental

Kirk CousinsLV · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 3,878.9 passing yards · 33.3 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 9.18.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,269 pass yds, 12 TD, 4 INT

-1

#14

Experimental

Jayden DanielsWAS · QB

3 games played. Projected finish: 2,482.1 passing yards · 16 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 5.66.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

459 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 203 rush yds, 2 TD

#26

Experimental

Jaxson DartNYG · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 2,048.3 passing yards · 17.6 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 3.22.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
rushing yards: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

250 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · 54 rush yds, 0 TD

-7

#37

Experimental

Aaron RodgersPIT · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 3,986.7 passing yards · 31.3 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -1.00.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,234 pass yds, 10 TD, 4 INT · 18 rush yds, 0 TD

+13

#419

Experimental

Derrick HenryBAL · RB

5 games played. Projected finish: 1,611.1 rushing yards · 21.4 rushing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 10.40.

Main forecast factors

rushing yards: raises the model score
RB position: raises the model score
games played: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

476 rush yds, 7 TD · 62 rec yds, 1 TD

-7

#12

Experimental

Kyler MurrayMIN · QB

4 games played. Projected finish: 2,809.4 passing yards · 12.2 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 0.57.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

662 pass yds, 2 TD, 2 INT · 93 rush yds, 0 TD

+15

#89

Experimental

Drake MayeNE · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 4,243.8 passing yards · 28.4 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 9.07.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,228 pass yds, 8 TD, 7 INT · 161 rush yds, 1 TD

+32

#15

Experimental

Caleb WilliamsCHI · QB

2 games played. Projected finish: 3,076.1 passing yards · 18.7 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 4.43.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

407 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 107 rush yds, 2 TD

-9

#31

Experimental

Geno SmithNYJ · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 3,604.9 passing yards · 20.8 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: -1.45.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

1,084 pass yds, 6 TD, 0 INT · 43 rush yds, 0 TD

#423

Experimental

Bo NixDEN · QB

5 games played. Projected finish: 3,431.3 passing yards · 21.8 passing TDs.

Shrunk competitive EPA above a positional baseline: 2.39.

Main forecast factors

QB position: raises the model score
passing TDs: raises the model score
interceptions: lowers the model score

Factors describe the fitted model, not a causal explanation of voters.

942 pass yds, 6 TD, 3 INT · 35 rush yds, 1 TD

#47

Experimental